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Week 10 · Nov 12 – 16

NFL best bets for Week 10

The model’s strongest calls of the week. A game makes this list when its best pick, against the spread, on the moneyline or on the total, reaches 90% confidence. Each one is posted before kickoff, stays as posted, and is graded after the final score.

13Best bets this week
12Yet to kick off
1 of 1Won
BEST BETS · Week 10BEST BETS Best picks at 90% confidence or higher · kickoff order90%+ · kickoff order

Western Michigan at Akron, Tuesday, November 10. Final score: W Michigan 42, Akron 14. Moneyline: W Michigan −1000, Akron +525. Picks: moneyline WMU ML at −833, won; spread AKR +14.5 at −110, lost; total O 46.5 at −185, won. Best pick: WMU ML, 92% confidence.

W Michigan 6-3 42 vs Akron 1-8 14 prediction, picks and odds

Louisiana at UL Monroe, Thursday, November 12 at 9:00 PM ET. Moneyline: Louisiana −476, UL Monroe +340. Picks: moneyline ULL ML at −455; spread ULL −11.5 at −108; total O 47.5 at −139. Best pick: ULL ML, 92% confidence.

Louisiana 6-3 vs UL Monroe 2-7 prediction, picks and odds

Houston at Colorado, Friday, November 13 at 10:15 PM ET. Moneyline: Houston −417, Colorado +300. Picks: moneyline HOU ML at −417; spread HOU −3.5 at −238; total U 58.5 at −250. Best pick: HOU ML, 91% confidence.

Houston 7-2 vs Colorado 3-6 prediction, picks and odds

Nebraska at Rutgers, Saturday, November 14 at 12:30 PM ET. Moneyline: Nebraska −588, Rutgers +410. Picks: moneyline NEB ML at −625; spread NEB −5.5 at −263; total O 46.5 at −222. Best pick: NEB ML, 92% confidence.

Nebraska 5-4 vs Rutgers 2-7 prediction, picks and odds

Kansas State at TCU, Saturday, November 14 at 2:00 PM ET. Moneyline: Kansas St +310, TCU −417. Picks: moneyline TCU ML at −476; spread KSU +17.5 at −238; total O 39.5 at −227. Best pick: TCU ML, 91% confidence.

Kansas St 4-5 vs TCU 4-5 prediction, picks and odds

Missouri at Georgia, Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET. Moneyline: Missouri +600, Georgia −1000. Picks: moneyline UGA ML at −1000; spread MIZ +23.5 at −256; total O 40.5 at −250. Best pick: UGA ML, 92% confidence.

Missouri 6-3 vs Georgia 8-1 prediction, picks and odds

California at Virginia, Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET. Moneyline: California +335, Virginia −455. Picks: moneyline UVA ML at −476; spread UVA −4.5 at −213; total O 40.5 at −227. Best pick: UVA ML, 91% confidence.

California 3-6 vs Virginia 4-5 prediction, picks and odds

Nevada at Northern Illinois, Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET. Moneyline: Nevada −313, N Illinois +240. Picks: moneyline NEV ML at −303; spread NIU +14.5 at −256; total O 39.5 at −278. Best pick: NEV ML, 91% confidence.

Nevada 3-6 vs N Illinois 0-9 prediction, picks and odds

Fresno State at Texas State, Saturday, November 14 at 4:00 PM ET. Moneyline: Fresno St +285, Texas St −385. Picks: moneyline TXST ML at −385; spread FRES +17.5 at −238; total U 68.5 at −256. Best pick: TXST ML, 91% confidence.

Fresno St 5-4 vs Texas St 5-4 prediction, picks and odds

San José State at Air Force, Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET. Moneyline: San Jose St +340, Air Force −476. Picks: moneyline AF ML at −588; spread SJSU +20.5 at −263; total O 40.5 at −270. Best pick: AF ML, 91% confidence.

San Jose St 5-5 vs Air Force 7-2 prediction, picks and odds

Stanford at Virginia Tech, Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 PM ET. Moneyline: Stanford +550, Virginia Tech −909. Picks: moneyline VT ML at −833; spread STAN +23.5 at −250; total U 66.5 at −263. Best pick: VT ML, 92% confidence.

Stanford 4-5 vs Virginia Tech 6-3 prediction, picks and odds

UNLV at New Mexico, Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 PM ET. Moneyline: UNLV +510, New Mexico −769. Picks: moneyline UNM ML at −769; spread UNLV +21.5 at −250; total O 40.5 at −244. Best pick: UNM ML, 92% confidence.

UNLV 5-4 vs New Mexico 8-1 prediction, picks and odds

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET. Moneyline: Bills −455, Jets +350. Picks: moneyline BUF ML at −455; spread BUF −3.5 at −238; total U 58 at −270. Best pick: BUF ML, 90% confidence.

Bills 7-1 vs Jets 2-7 prediction, picks and odds

How a game earns an NFL best bet

One statistical model handles every game. It projects a final score, compares it with the sportsbooks’ lines and makes three picks (moneyline, spread and over/under), each with a confidence number. The pick it likes most is the game’s best pick, and a best pick at 90% or higher makes the game a best bet. The cutoff is the same every week, so a quiet slate simply means a short list.

NFL and college football, week by week

The list follows the NFL week, Tuesday to Monday, with the NFL and college football games (FBS and FCS, with posted odds) together in kickoff order. The week strip above opens the best bets of the weeks around this one, and this week’s picks cover every game of the week, NFL and college football, best bet or not.

Any of the three markets

The best pick can be a moneyline pick (who wins), a spread pick (who covers) or a total (over or under the posted number). This list shows that one pick per game; the game’s other two picks and the odds are on its own page.

Published before kickoff, never changed

A game is analyzed up to four days before kickoff, once its odds are posted and its lines have settled, so the list fills up through the week. A best bet is frozen when it is published: neither the pick nor the line it was made against changes afterwards — only the current odds move until kickoff — and it is graded won or lost when the game ends.

The best bets’ record

Since the model started publishing, 45 best bets have been graded: 37 won and 8 lost (82.2%). Every best bet stays on the track record next to every other pick, losses included. 90% is a strong lean, not a lock.

Best bets: frequently asked questions

When do the week’s NFL best bets come out?

As each game is analyzed, up to four days before kickoff, once its odds are posted and the lines have settled. The list grows through the week, and a best bet never changes once it is on it.

Is there a best bet every week?

Not always. The cutoff is 90% every week and never moves, so a slate without a pick that strong has no best bet, and a big one can have several.

Can I see the best bets before kickoff?

Yes. Every best bet is open to everyone as soon as it is published, with or without an account, and after the final score it stays on the list, graded.

Do best bets include player props?

No. A best bet is always a moneyline, spread or total pick. Player props are not part of the model’s picks.

Do the best bets include college football?

Yes. College football games with posted odds, FBS and FCS, are held to the same 90% bar and share the list with the NFL games of the same week, all in kickoff order.

Is a best bet a sure thing?

No. 90% is the model’s confidence in a pick, never a guarantee: best bets lose too, and the track record counts every one of them, wins and losses alike.

Can I see the best bets of past weeks?

Yes. The week strip at the top of the page opens the best bets of the weeks around this one, each graded once its games end, and the track record lists every week’s best-bet results.

How have the best bets done so far?

Since the model started publishing, 45 best bets have been graded: 37 won and 8 lost (82.2%). The track record lists every one, week by week.