MoneylineBest pick
TXST MLodds down −385
91%
Texas St wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model67.1%
SportsbooksOdds75.8%
Edge−8.7
Fresno State vs Texas State prediction, picks and odds
Updated 2:18 PM ET
Fresno St vs Texas St picks
3 picks · Texas St by 7 · 49 pointsSpread
FRES +17.5odds up −238
82%
Fresno St wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.
Confidence82%
Model73.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+5.0
Total
Under 68.5odds down −256
74%
The two teams score 68 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model75.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge+7.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Fresno St77071421
Texas St77771428
Most likely final scoresFRES 21–28 TXST 0.5%FRES 27–30 TXST 0.5%FRES 21–24 TXST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Fresno StTexas St
Offense
353
Total yards
451
237
Passing yards
206
116
Rushing yards
245
19
First downs
22
Scoring
3
Touchdowns
3
1
Passing touchdowns
1
2
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
50
Penalty yards
51
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 280.5
Proj. 353
72%
Passing yards
Over 179.5
Proj. 237
72%
Rushing yards
Over 64.5
Proj. 116
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Total yards
Over 378.5
Proj. 451
72%
Passing yards
Over 149.5
Proj. 206
72%
Rushing yards
Over 192.5
Proj. 245
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
72%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Fresno St
QB
Jayden Mandal22/36 · 226 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.0 INT
226pass yds
RB
Bryson Donelson9 carries · 30 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
30rush yds
WR/TE
Josiah Freeman6 rec · 78 yds · 0.3 TD
78rec yds
WR/TE
Ezekiel Avit4 rec · 52 yds · 0.5 TD
52rec yds
Texas St
QB
Brad Jackson17/26 · 196 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT
196pass yds
RB
Torrance Burgess Jr.17 carries · 120 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
120rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Dawn Jr.5 rec · 46 yds · 0.2 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Beau Sparks3 rec · 44 yds · 0.1 TD
44rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at TXST −10.5 and is now TXST −9.5, a 1-point move toward Fresno St.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Fresno StateTexas State
Fresno StateTexas State
5-4Record5-4
L1StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
26.8Points per game38.6
20.6Points allowed30.8
4th Pac-12Conference3rd Pac-12
+56
Point differentialseason to date
+70
194Passing yards / game215
111Rushing yards / game254
36%3rd-down conversion57%
12Takeaways7
0Sacks0
4Turnovers12
182Passing yards / game232
98Rushing yards / game310
31%3rd-down conversion59%
9Takeaways4
0Sacks0
4Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Fresno St’s road games with Texas St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Fresno St
5-4
WLLWL
Wk 10Nov 7@ USU
Fresno St10Utah State17
Fresno St moneyline −102Utah State moneyline −122
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 30vs ORST
Oregon St22Fresno St38
Oregon St moneyline −250Fresno St moneyline +180
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ SDSU
Fresno St23San Diego St26
Fresno St moneyline −333San Diego St moneyline +255
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs BSU
Boise St38Fresno St31
Boise St moneyline −345Fresno St moneyline +213
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ WSU
Fresno St26Washington St6
Fresno St moneyline +101Washington St moneyline −130
WFINAL
Texas St
5-4
LWWLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ ORST
Texas St42Oregon St21
Texas St moneyline +157Oregon St moneyline −213
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 30@ BSU
Texas St45Boise St46
Texas St moneyline +330Boise St moneyline −500
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs USU
Utah State17Texas St20
Utah State moneyline +390Texas St moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 15vs CSU
Colorado St27Texas St66
Colorado St moneyline +397Texas St moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ SDSU
Texas St29San Diego St31
Texas St moneyline −417San Diego St moneyline +280
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FRES)+285+285
Moneyline (TXST)−385−385
Spread (TXST)−10.5up −9.5
Total58.5up 60.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Fresno State visits Texas State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 4:00 PM ET. Fresno State comes in at 5-4 and Texas State at 5-4. The moneyline has Fresno State at +285 and Texas State at −385.
Our model predicts a final score of Fresno St 21, Texas St 28. Its picks: Texas State to win (−385); Fresno State +17.5 (−238); under 68.5 points (−256). The best pick is Texas State to win, at 91% confidence.