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Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets prediction, picks and odds

Back to the NFL Week 10 picks NFL picks Week 10 Sunday, November 15 · 1:00 PM ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Bills
Away · 7-1ML −455
1:00PM Kickoff Sun, Nov 15 · ET
Jets
ML +350Home · 2-7
SpreadBUF −7.5
Total51 points
Kickoff in3d 21h

MetLife Stadium

Predictions3 Comparison Recent games Standings Head-to-head Odds Injuries
Updated 1:48 PM ET

Bills vs Jets picks

3 picks · Bills by 17 · 37 points
MoneylineBest pick
BUF ML−455 90%
The Bills win the game.
Confidence90%
Model75.9% SportsbooksOdds80.5% Edge−4.6
Spread
BUF −3.5−238 72%
The Bills win by four points or more.
Confidence72%
Model64.4% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge−2.8
Total
Under 58odds down −270 77%
The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them (exactly 58 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model73.5% SportsbooksOdds69.0% Edge+4.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bills710371727
Jets0703710
Most likely final scoresBUF 27–10 NYJ 0.6%BUF 27–20 NYJ 0.6%BUF 23–17 NYJ 0.6%
Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BillsJets

Offense

366 Total yards 299
222 Passing yards 200
144 Rushing yards 99
23 First downs 18

Scoring

3 Touchdowns 1
2 Passing touchdowns 1
1 Rushing touchdowns 0
2 Field goals made 1

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1
1 Interceptions thrown 1
1 Fumbles lost 1
2 Sacks allowed 2
52 Penalty yards 52
Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards Over 319.5 Proj. 366 72%
Passing yards Over 181.5 Proj. 223 72%
Rushing yards Over 115.5 Proj. 144 72%
First downs Over 20.5 Proj. 23 71%
Total yards Over 252.5 Proj. 299 72%
Passing yards Over 158.5 Proj. 200 72%
Rushing yards Over 70.5 Proj. 99 72%
First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 18 73%
Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bills
QB Josh Allen20/30 · 222 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 222pass yds
RB James Cook22 carries · 101 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 101rush yds
WR/TE Khalil Shakir4 rec · 53 yds · 0.3 TD 53rec yds
WR/TE Dalton Kincaid3 rec · 34 yds · 0.3 TD 34rec yds
Jets
QB Geno Smith20/33 · 200 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 200pass yds
RB Braelon Allen17 carries · 79 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec 79rush yds
WR/TE Omar Cooper Jr.6 rec · 89 yds · 0.5 TD 89rec yds
WR/TE Mason Taylor3 rec · 29 yds · 0.3 TD 29rec yds

The Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets in NFL Week 10 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. The Bills come in at 7-1 and the Jets at 2-7. The moneyline has the Bills at −455 and the Jets at +350.

Our model predicts a final score of Bills 27, Jets 10. Its picks: the Bills to win (−455); the Bills −3.5 (−238); under 58 points (−270). The best pick is the Bills to win, at 90% confidence.