The two teams score 58 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model66.7%SportsbooksOdds68.6%Edge−1.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarterThe model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
HOUHouston7140142135
COLOColorado000707
Most likely final scoresHOU 35–7 COLO 0.6%HOU 28–21 COLO 0.6%HOU 42–14 COLO 0.6%
Projected box scoreModel onlyBuilt from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
HOUHoustonColoradoCOLO
Offense
422Total yards374
250Passing yards251
172Rushing yards123
23First downs20
Scoring
4Touchdowns1
3Passing touchdowns1
1Rushing touchdowns0
2Field goals made0
Ball security
1Turnovers1
1Interceptions thrown1
1Fumbles lost1
0Sacks allowed0
52Penalty yards61
Team stat picksThe model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
HOUTotal yardsOver 348.5Proj. 42272%
HOUPassing yardsOver 192.5Proj. 25072%
HOURushing yardsOver 120.5Proj. 17272%
HOUFirst downsOver 18.5Proj. 2374%
COLOTotal yardsOver 300.5Proj. 37472%
COLOPassing yardsOver 193.5Proj. 25172%
COLORushing yardsOver 70.5Proj. 12372%
COLOFirst downsOver 16.5Proj. 2072%
Key playersProjected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Line move.The spread opened at COLO +10.5 and is now COLO +9.5, a 1-point move toward Colorado.
Rest.Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
HOUHoustonCOLOColorado
HOUHoustonCOLOColorado
7-2Record3-6
W1StreakL1
6 daysRest6 days
35.4Points per game19.8
21.3Points allowed28.3
4th Big 12Conference16th Big 12
+127Point differentialseason to date−77
262Passing yards / game255
207Rushing yards / game130
59%3rd-down conversion37%
13Takeaways7
0Sacks0
6Turnovers18
261Passing yards / game284
174Rushing yards / game155
60%3rd-down conversion43%
6Takeaways4
0Sacks0
2Turnovers9
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Houston’s road games with Colorado’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
HOUHouston7-2WWWLW
Wk 10Nov 7vs CIN
CINCincinnati24HOUHouston31
Cincinnati moneyline +300Houston moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ UTAH
HOUHouston13UTAHUtah21
Houston moneyline +190Utah moneyline −263
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs OKST
OKSTOklahoma St32HOUHouston35
Oklahoma St moneyline +150Houston moneyline −182
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ KSU
HOUHouston35KSUKansas St16
Houston moneyline +108Kansas St moneyline −147
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs UCF
UCFUCF17HOUHouston27
UCF moneyline +300Houston moneyline −455
WFINAL
COLOColorado3-6LLLWL
Wk 10Nov 7@ ASU
COLOColorado10ASUArizona St20
Colorado moneyline +128Arizona St moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs KSU
KSUKansas St24COLOColorado27
Kansas St moneyline +134Colorado moneyline −179
WF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24@ OKST
COLOColorado24OKSTOklahoma St57
Colorado moneyline +425Oklahoma St moneyline −714
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs UTAH
UTAHUtah27COLOColorado24
Utah moneyline −833Colorado moneyline +540
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TTU
TTUTexas Tech29COLOColorado7
Texas Tech moneyline −667Colorado moneyline +420
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this game
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 3TDECU Stadium
HOUHouston36COLOColorado20
Houston moneyline +150Colorado moneyline −200
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (HOU)−417−417
Moneyline (COLO)+300+300
Spread (COLO)+10.5▾down +9.5
Total47.5▴up 51.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Houston visits Colorado in college football Week 11, on Friday, November 13 at 10:15 PM ET. Houston comes in at 7-2 and Colorado at 3-6. The moneyline has Houston at −417 and Colorado at +300.
Our model predicts a final score of Houston 35, Colorado 7. Its picks: Houston to win (−417); Houston −3.5 (−238); under 58.5 points (−250). The best pick is Houston to win, at 91% confidence.