Moneyline
IND MLodds down −204
69%
The Colts win the game.
Confidence69%
Model59.6%
SportsbooksOdds55.6%
Edge+4.0
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts prediction, picks and odds
Updated 1:48 PM ET
Dolphins vs Colts picks
3 picks · Colts by 3 · 37 pointsSpread
IND +3.5odds down −303
77%
The Colts win, or lose by three points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model71.6%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+4.4
TotalBest pick
Over 35.5odds up −164
77%
The two teams score 36 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model76.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+8.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Dolphins37701017
Colts010731020
Most likely final scoresMIA 17–20 IND 0.9%MIA 24–27 IND 0.8%MIA 20–23 IND 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
DolphinsColts
Offense
318
Total yards
318
191
Passing yards
200
127
Rushing yards
118
17
First downs
19
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
2
1
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
1
1
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
2
Sacks allowed
2
55
Penalty yards
52
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 271.5
Proj. 318
72%
Passing yards
Over 149.5
Proj. 191
72%
Rushing yards
Over 98.5
Proj. 127
72%
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 17
73%
Total yards
Over 271.5
Proj. 318
72%
Passing yards
Over 158.5
Proj. 200
72%
Rushing yards
Over 89.5
Proj. 118
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
71%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Dolphins
QB
Malik Willis16/28 · 191 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
191pass yds
RB
Ollie Gordon17 carries · 76 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec
76rush yds
WR/TE
Caleb Douglas4 rec · 64 yds · 0.5 TD
64rec yds
WR/TE
Greg Dulcich4 rec · 51 yds · 0.0 TD
51rec yds
Colts
QB
Daniel Jones20/30 · 200 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
200pass yds
RB
Jonathan Taylor16 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Keenan Allen6 rec · 58 yds · 0.0 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Josh Downs3 rec · 34 yds · 0.3 TD
34rec yds
Road form. The Dolphins are 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 9.5 points a game.
Home form. The Colts are 1-3 at home, scoring 21.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at IND −2.5 and is now IND −3.5, a 1-point move toward the Colts.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Colts have lost 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Miami DolphinsIndianapolis Colts
Miami DolphinsIndianapolis Colts
1-7Record2-7
1-3 roadRoad / home1-3 home
L2StreakL5
7 daysRest7 days
15.8Points per game20.4
25.0Points allowed27.7
4th AFC EastDivision3rd AFC South
−74
Point differentialseason to date
−65
5.0Yards per play4.5
165Passing yards / game174
118Rushing yards / game115
42%3rd-down conversion37%
48%Red-zone touchdowns58%
7Takeaways6
12Sacks19
10Turnovers17
5.3Yards per play4.7
162Passing yards / game190
113Rushing yards / game115
35%3rd-down conversion38%
50%Red-zone touchdowns58%
3Takeaways4
6Sacks8
3Turnovers10
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Dolphins’ road games with the Colts’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Dolphins
1-7
LLWLL
Wk 9Nov 8vs DET
Lions19Dolphins9
Lions moneyline −333Dolphins moneyline +255
LFINAL
Wk 8Nov 1vs NE
Patriots24Dolphins19
Patriots moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +275
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ NYJ
Dolphins28Jets25
Dolphins moneyline +175Jets moneyline −208
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CIN
Bengals31Dolphins24
Bengals moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +267
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ MIN
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
LFINAL
Colts
2-7
LLLLL
Wk 9Nov 8vs DAL
Cowboys27Colts23
Cowboys moneyline −222Colts moneyline +175
LFINAL
Wk 8Nov 1@ JAX
Colts7Jaguars42
Colts moneyline +390Jaguars moneyline −526
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ MIN
Colts10Vikings16
Colts moneyline +270Vikings moneyline −345
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs TEN
Titans26Colts20
Titans moneyline +240Colts moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ PIT
Colts22Steelers34
Colts moneyline +131Steelers moneyline −161
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · after Week 9Teams in this gameAFC East
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
DOLPHINS
0
Wins
Avg. points9.0 – 24.5
Avg. total33.5 pts
Over closing total0 of 2
2
COLTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 1Lucas Oil Stadium
Dolphins8Colts33
Dolphins moneyline −105Colts moneyline −118
2024 · Wk 7Lucas Oil Stadium
Dolphins10Colts16
Dolphins moneyline +125Colts moneyline −154
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MIA)+163+163
Moneyline (IND)−204−204
Spread (IND)−2.5down −3.5
Total43.5down 38.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Injury report
The teams’ current reports: out, doubtful and questionable firstDolphins
INACTIVE
Christian Haynes
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Jalen TolbertWR
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Jason Godrick
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Jaylen WrightRB
Inactive for Week 9 vs. Detroit
INACTIVE
Justin JolyTE
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Marcellas DialCB
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Reese TaylorCB
Coach's Decision
QUESTIONABLE
Will KacmarekTE
Quadriceps
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 5
IRRonnie Harrison Jr.Hamstring
IRTrey MooreLBAnkle
IRCole TurnerTEUndisclosed
IRRene KongaUndisclosed
PUPDarrell Baker Jr.Undisclosed
Colts
INACTIVE
AJ HaulcyS
Inactive for Week 9 vs. Dallas
INACTIVE
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB
Inactive for Week 9 vs. Dallas
INACTIVE
Charlie Heck
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Justin WalleyCB
Inactive for Week 9 vs. Dallas
INACTIVE
Pharaoh BrownTE
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Riley LeonardQB
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Will MalloryTE
Coach's Decision
QUESTIONABLE
Jalen Travis
Knee
QUESTIONABLE
Jaylon CarliesLB
Neck
QUESTIONABLE
Mo Alie-CoxTE
Groin
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 7
IRAlec PierceWRHeel
IRArden KeyDEHamstring
IRMicheal ClemonsDEToe
IRCam Taylor-BrittCBGroin
IRCameron MitchellUndisclosed
IRCarson TowtUndisclosed
IRD.J. MontgomeryWRAbdomen
The Miami Dolphins visit the Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 10 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis. The Dolphins come in at 1-7 and the Colts at 2-7. The moneyline has the Dolphins at +163 and the Colts at −204.
Our model predicts a final score of Dolphins 17, Colts 20. Its picks: the Colts to win (−204); the Colts +3.5 (−303); over 35.5 points (−164). The best pick is over 35.5 points, at 77% confidence.