How the model reads a game
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Power ratings
Every team gets a number: how many points better or worse than an average team it is on a neutral field. A second number tracks how much it pushes a game’s total up or down.
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The quarterback and the spot
Those numbers move with how well each team’s quarterback has played, then get adjusted for rest, home field and division games. Out comes a projected final score.
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Three calls per game
The projected score becomes the model’s own odds, checked against the sportsbooks’ lines. That gives a moneyline pick, a spread pick and an over/under pick, each with a confidence number the model calculates. Its favorite of the three is the game’s best pick, and a best pick at 90% or more is a best bet.
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Posted early, then left alone
A game is analyzed up to four days before kickoff, once its odds are out and the lines have settled. Once a pick is posted it stays as it is; only the current odds keep moving.
Why every pick is public
Plenty of handicappers post their winners and quietly skip the rest. You never see a full season, so you can’t tell skill from a hot streak.
Here you can check everything. Picks go up before kickoff, they don’t change, and each one is graded from the final score, wins and losses alike. Every pick is open to everyone from the moment it goes up, and stays there once it is graded, so the whole archive is there to check, with an account or without one.
What you can count on:
- A full scorecard. Every graded pick is on the track record, split by market, by league and by week.
- Only games with a call. A game shows up on the NFL predictions board once the model has posted picks for it.
- No sportsbook ties. You can’t bet here, we don’t hold your money and we don’t link to any sportsbook. Their lines are shown only so you can see where the model disagrees; that gap is the edge on each pick.
- No hand edits. The confidence beside a pick comes straight from the model. Nobody here nudges it up or down.
Check our work
Win rates, pick counts and every loss, week by week.
Who runs NFLPredictions
NerdyTech HUB SRL (Romania) and KickOff Ventures LLC (United States) run NFLPredictions: the platform, the model and this website. Both are registered companies, one in the European Union and one in the United States. Their details are below.
NerdyTech HUB SRL
Romanian company (EU), CUI RO40424366.
Responsible for data protection and GDPR compliance, for readers in the EU and the US.
KickOff Ventures LLC
Delaware limited liability company, 16192 Coastal Highway, Lewes, DE 19958, USA.
Leads the site’s operations and partnerships worldwide.
The rules for using the site are in our terms of use, and how we handle your data is in the privacy policy. For anything else, get in touch.
21+ Our picks are forecasts, not sure things, and any bet can lose. Set a budget before you bet, and read our responsible gambling page first.