MoneylineBest pick
TCU MLodds down −476
91%
TCU wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model70.0%
SportsbooksOdds76.9%
Edge−6.9
Kansas State vs TCU prediction, picks and odds
Updated 3:17 PM ET
Kansas St vs TCU picks
3 picks · TCU by 14 · 42 pointsSpread
KSU +17.5odds up −238
80%
Kansas St wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.
Confidence80%
Model70.9%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge+1.1
Total
Over 39.5odds up −227
74%
The two teams score 40 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model74.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+6.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Kansas St0707714
TCU77771428
Most likely final scoresKSU 14–28 TCU 0.6%KSU 21–24 TCU 0.6%KSU 21–28 TCU 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Kansas StTCU
Offense
354
Total yards
387
207
Passing yards
243
147
Rushing yards
144
19
First downs
21
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
4
1
Passing touchdowns
2
1
Rushing touchdowns
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
51
Penalty yards
56
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 280.5
Proj. 354
72%
Passing yards
Over 149.5
Proj. 206
72%
Rushing yards
Over 94.5
Proj. 147
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Total yards
Over 313.5
Proj. 387
72%
Passing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 243
72%
Rushing yards
Over 91.5
Proj. 144
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
71%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Kansas St
QB
Blake Barnett13/22 · 160 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.5 INT
160pass yds
RB
Rodney Fields Jr.13 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
54rush yds
WR/TE
Jaron Tibbs4 rec · 41 yds · 0.3 TD
41rec yds
WR/TE
Joshua Manning3 rec · 32 yds · 0.1 TD
32rec yds
TCU
QB
Jaden Craig19/31 · 243 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
243pass yds
RB
Jon Denman8 carries · 36 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
36rush yds
WR/TE
Jordan Dwyer6 rec · 89 yds · 0.5 TD
89rec yds
WR/TE
Kari Ashley5 rec · 68 yds · 0.4 TD
68rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at TCU −8.5 and is now TCU −10.5, a 2-point move toward TCU.
Rest. Kansas St comes in on 7 days’ rest, TCU on 8.
Streak. Kansas St has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Kansas StateTCU
Kansas StateTCU
4-5Record4-5
L3StreakL1
7 daysRest8 days
31.3Points per game23.8
26.8Points allowed15.8
13th Big 12Conference12th Big 12
+41
Point differentialseason to date
+72
219Passing yards / game271
197Rushing yards / game107
52%3rd-down conversion43%
7Takeaways12
0Sacks0
9Turnovers15
237Passing yards / game267
120Rushing yards / game142
44%3rd-down conversion42%
2Takeaways7
0Sacks0
1Turnovers8
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kansas St’s road games with TCU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Kansas St
4-5
LWLLL
Wk 10Nov 7vs OKST
Oklahoma St66Kansas St28
Oklahoma St moneyline −250Kansas St moneyline +200
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31@ COLO
Kansas St24Colorado27
Kansas St moneyline +134Colorado moneyline −179
LF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24@ ASU
Kansas St17Arizona St28
Kansas St moneyline −123Arizona St moneyline −108
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs KU
Kansas24Kansas St35
Kansas moneyline +128Kansas St moneyline −159
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs HOU
Houston35Kansas St16
Houston moneyline +108Kansas St moneyline −147
LFINAL
TCU
4-5
LWLWL
Wk 10Nov 6@ ARIZ
TCU28Arizona29
TCU moneyline +205Arizona moneyline −270
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs KU
Kansas16TCU22
Kansas moneyline +190TCU moneyline −263
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs WVU
West Virginia24TCU20
West Virginia moneyline +290TCU moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ BAY
TCU17Baylor6
TCU moneyline +155Baylor moneyline −200
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs BYU
BYU17TCU10
BYU moneyline −233TCU moneyline +175
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameBig 12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
KANSAS ST
1
Wins
Avg. points41.0 – 28.0
Avg. total69.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
TCU
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 7Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Kansas St41TCU28
Kansas St moneyline −152TCU moneyline +118
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (KSU)+310+310
Moneyline (TCU)−417−417
Spread (TCU)−8.5down −10.5
Total46.5down 45.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Kansas State visits TCU in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 2:00 PM ET. Kansas State comes in at 4-5 and TCU at 4-5. The moneyline has Kansas State at +310 and TCU at −417.
Our model predicts a final score of Kansas St 14, TCU 28. Its picks: TCU to win (−476); Kansas State +17.5 (−238); over 39.5 points (−227). The best pick is TCU to win, at 91% confidence.