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UNLV vs New Mexico prediction, picks and odds

Back to the college football picks NCAA FBS picks Week 11 Saturday, November 14 · 7:30 PM ET
UNLV
Away · 5-4ML +510
7:30PM Kickoff Sat, Nov 14 · ET
New Mexico
ML −769Home · 8-1
SpreadUNM −14.5
Total46.5 points
Kickoff in3d 4h
Predictions3 Comparison Recent games Standings Head-to-head Odds
Updated 2:03 PM ET

UNLV vs New Mexico picks

3 picks · New Mexico by 7 · 49 points
MoneylineBest pick
UNM MLodds down −769 92%
New Mexico wins the game.
Confidence92%
Model80.8% SportsbooksOdds85.8% Edge−5.0
Spread
UNLV +21.5−250 78%
UNLV wins, or loses by 21 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model66.7% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge−1.6
Total
Over 40.5odds down −244 74%
The two teams score 41 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model72.7% SportsbooksOdds67.1% Edge+5.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UNLV0777721
New Mexico773111428
Most likely final scoresUNLV 21–28 UNM 0.5%UNLV 24–27 UNM 0.5%UNLV 21–24 UNM 0.5%
Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UNLVNew Mexico

Offense

300 Total yards 390
189 Passing yards 163
111 Rushing yards 227
16 First downs 20

Scoring

2 Touchdowns 4
1 Passing touchdowns 1
1 Rushing touchdowns 3
2 Field goals made 0

Ball security

2 Turnovers 1
1 Interceptions thrown 1
1 Fumbles lost 1
0 Sacks allowed 0
55 Penalty yards 58
Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards Over 226.5 Proj. 300 72%
Passing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 189 72%
Rushing yards Over 59.5 Proj. 112 72%
First downs Over 12.5 Proj. 17 74%
Total yards Over 316.5 Proj. 390 72%
Passing yards Over 105.5 Proj. 163 72%
Rushing yards Over 175.5 Proj. 227 72%
First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72%
Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UNLV
QB Jackson Arnold15/26 · 177 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT 177pass yds
RB Jai'Den Thomas14 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 53rush yds
WR/TE Kayden McGee3 rec · 61 yds · 0.6 TD 61rec yds
WR/TE Tastean Reddicks3 rec · 48 yds · 0.3 TD 48rec yds
New Mexico
QB Toa Faavae12/20 · 150 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.9 INT 150pass yds
RB Scottre Humphrey15 carries · 78 rush yds · 1.7 TD · 1 rec 78rush yds
WR/TE Bailen George2 rec · 52 yds · 0.4 TD 52rec yds
WR/TE Cade Keith4 rec · 43 yds · 0.5 TD 43rec yds

UNLV visits New Mexico in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 PM ET. UNLV comes in at 5-4 and New Mexico at 8-1. The moneyline has UNLV at +510 and New Mexico at −769.

Our model predicts a final score of UNLV 21, New Mexico 28. Its picks: New Mexico to win (−769); UNLV +21.5 (−250); over 40.5 points (−244). The best pick is New Mexico to win, at 92% confidence.