California vs Virginia Prediction & Picks

California vs Virginia picks

3 picks · Virginia by 28 · 42 points

MoneylineBest pick

UVA MLodds up −476 91%

Virginia wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model78.5% SportsbooksOdds82.1% Edge−3.6

Spread

UVA −4.5odds up −213 78%

Virginia wins by five points or more.

Confidence78%

Model67.5% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge−1.8

Total

Over 40.5odds up −227 74%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.7% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+3.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

California070077

Virginia714772135

Most likely final scoresCAL 7–35 UVA 0.7%CAL 21–28 UVA 0.7%CAL 14–42 UVA 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

CaliforniaVirginia

Offense

336 Total yards 390

227 Passing yards 224

109 Rushing yards 166

19 First downs 22

Scoring

1 Touchdowns 4

0 Passing touchdowns 2

1 Rushing touchdowns 2

0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

65 Penalty yards 56

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 263.5 Proj. 336 72%

Passing yards Over 170.5 Proj. 228 72%

Rushing yards Over 56.5 Proj. 109 72%

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 19 74%

Total yards Over 316.5 Proj. 390 72%

Passing yards Over 166.5 Proj. 224 72%

Rushing yards Over 113.5 Proj. 166 72%

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 72%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

California

QB JaronKeawe Sagapolutele16/26 · 169 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.7 INT 169pass yds

RB Ashten Emory14 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec 55rush yds

WR/TE Chase Hendricks5 rec · 56 yds · 0.0 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Anthony League2 rec · 15 yds · 0.0 TD 15rec yds

Virginia

QB Beau Pribula15/24 · 180 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 180pass yds

RB Jekail Middlebrook13 carries · 93 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec 93rush yds

WR/TE Dashawn Martin4 rec · 48 yds · 1.0 TD 48rec yds

WR/TE John Rogers3 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD 33rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at UVA −11.5 and is now UVA −10.5, a 1-point move toward California.

Rest. Both teams come in on 14 days’ rest.

Streak. California has lost 3 in a row.

Streak. Virginia has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

CaliforniaVirginia

3-6Record4-5

L3StreakL3

14 daysRest14 days

21.9Points per game25.9

31.6Points allowed23.1

16th ACCConference11th ACC

−87 Point differentialseason to date +25

275Passing yards / game213

83Rushing yards / game145

36%3rd-down conversion30%

10Takeaways9

0Sacks0

9Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares California’s road games with Virginia’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.