MoneylineBest pick
ULL MLodds up −455
92%
Louisiana wins the game.
Confidence92%
Model80.5%
SportsbooksOdds80.7%
Edge−0.2
Louisiana vs UL Monroe prediction, picks and odds
Updated 3:18 PM ET
Louisiana vs UL Monroe picks
3 picks · Louisiana by 28 · 56 pointsSpread
ULL −11.5odds up −108
71%
Louisiana wins by 12 points or more.
Confidence71%
Model54.0%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+4.0
Total
Over 47.5odds up −139
74%
The two teams score 48 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model60.7%
SportsbooksOdds54.2%
Edge+6.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Louisiana1414772842
UL Monroe0707714
Most likely final scoresULL 42–14 ULM 0.6%ULL 38–10 ULM 0.5%ULL 41–17 ULM 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
LouisianaUL Monroe
Offense
396
Total yards
335
187
Passing yards
192
209
Rushing yards
143
20
First downs
18
Scoring
5
Touchdowns
2
2
Passing touchdowns
1
3
Rushing touchdowns
1
2
Field goals made
0
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
49
Penalty yards
56
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 323.5
Proj. 396
72%
Passing yards
Over 130.5
Proj. 187
72%
Rushing yards
Over 156.5
Proj. 209
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Total yards
Over 262.5
Proj. 335
72%
Passing yards
Over 135.5
Proj. 193
72%
Rushing yards
Over 90.5
Proj. 143
72%
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
73%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Louisiana
QB
D'Wayne' Winfield15/24 · 179 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
179pass yds
RB
Steven Blanco10 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec
38rush yds
WR/TE
Trenton Chaney3 rec · 38 yds · 0.3 TD
38rec yds
WR/TE
Shelton Sampson Jr.3 rec · 36 yds · 0.4 TD
36rec yds
UL Monroe
QB
Aidan Armenta17/27 · 180 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
180pass yds
RB
Donald Chaney Jr.7 carries · 35 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec
35rush yds
WR/TE
JP Coulter3 rec · 27 yds · 0.0 TD
27rec yds
WR/TE
Bryce Anderson2 rec · 20 yds · 0.3 TD
20rec yds
Total move. The total opened at 48.5 and is now 49.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 5 days’ rest.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
LouisianaUL Monroe
LouisianaUL Monroe
6-3Record2-7
W1StreakW1
5 daysRest5 days
29.9Points per game20.1
21.8Points allowed34.8
3rd Sun BeltConference14th Sun Belt
+73
Point differentialseason to date
−132
188Passing yards / game198
203Rushing yards / game138
44%3rd-down conversion35%
16Takeaways7
0Sacks0
12Turnovers14
227Passing yards / game241
139Rushing yards / game117
36%3rd-down conversion41%
8Takeaways2
0Sacks0
5Turnovers8
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Louisiana’s road games with UL Monroe’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Louisiana
6-3
WLWLW
Wk 10Nov 7vs USA
South Alabama26Louisiana28
South Alabama moneyline +235Louisiana moneyline −303
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ USM
Louisiana31Southern Miss35
Louisiana moneyline −556Southern Miss moneyline +360
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs TROY
Troy6Louisiana33
Troy moneyline +128Louisiana moneyline −156
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ LT
Louisiana31Louisiana Tech32
Louisiana moneyline +121Louisiana Tech moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ARST
Arkansas St20Louisiana23
Arkansas St moneyline +170Louisiana moneyline −238
WFINAL
UL Monroe
2-7
LLWLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ ARST
UL Monroe19Arkansas St17
UL Monroe moneyline +510Arkansas St moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs USM
Southern Miss35UL Monroe21
Southern Miss moneyline −175UL Monroe moneyline +133
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ TROY
UL Monroe21Troy14
UL Monroe moneyline +475Troy moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs LT
Louisiana Tech24UL Monroe0
Louisiana Tech moneyline −714UL Monroe moneyline +480
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ USA
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
LOUISIANA
1
Wins
Avg. points30.0 – 27.0
Avg. total57.0 pts
0
UL MONROE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 14Louisiana home
UL Monroe27Louisiana30
UL Monroe: no odds on recordLouisiana: no odds on record
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ULL)−476−476
Moneyline (ULM)+325+325
Spread (ULM)+10.5+10.5
Total48.5up 49.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Louisiana visits UL Monroe in college football Week 11, on Thursday, November 12 at 9:00 PM ET. Louisiana comes in at 6-3 and UL Monroe at 2-7. The moneyline has Louisiana at −476 and UL Monroe at +325.
Our model predicts a final score of Louisiana 42, UL Monroe 14. Its picks: Louisiana to win (−455); Louisiana −11.5 (−108); over 47.5 points (−139). The best pick is Louisiana to win, at 92% confidence.