MoneylineBest pick
AF MLodds down −588
91%
Air Force wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model76.1%
SportsbooksOdds82.2%
Edge−6.1
San José State vs Air Force prediction, picks and odds
SpreadAF −11.5
Total47.5 points
Kickoff in3d 3h
Updated 2:03 PM ET
San Jose St vs Air Force picks
3 picks · Air Force by 7 · 49 pointsSpread
SJSU +20.5odds down −263
80%
San Jose St wins, or loses by 20 points or fewer.
Confidence80%
Model69.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+0.7
Total
Over 40.5−270
74%
The two teams score 41 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model70.9%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge+1.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
San Jose St77701421
Air Force1400141428
Most likely final scoresSJSU 21–28 AF 0.6%SJSU 21–24 AF 0.5%SJSU 27–30 AF 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
San Jose StAir Force
Offense
308
Total yards
414
190
Passing yards
143
118
Rushing yards
271
16
First downs
23
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
3
1
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
2
2
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
44
Penalty yards
47
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 235.5
Proj. 308
72%
Passing yards
Over 133.5
Proj. 190
72%
Rushing yards
Over 65.5
Proj. 118
72%
First downs
Over 12.5
Proj. 16
70%
Total yards
Over 340.5
Proj. 414
72%
Passing yards
Over 85.5
Proj. 143
72%
Rushing yards
Over 218.5
Proj. 271
72%
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 23
70%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
San Jose St
QB
Daniel Rolovich11/18 · 143 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
143pass yds
RB
Jabari Bates17 carries · 90 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
90rush yds
WR/TE
Carson Clark6 rec · 68 yds · 0.5 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Jerry Mcclure3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD
34rec yds
Air Force
QB
Evan Medders5/7 · 69 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
69pass yds
RB
Kemper Hodges12 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.6 TD
60rush yds
WR/TE
Simon Kibbee3 rec · 46 yds · 0.5 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Matt Long3 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD
33rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at AF −10.5 and is now AF −11.5, a 1-point move toward Air Force.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
San José StateAir Force
San José StateAir Force
5-5Record7-2
W1StreakW2
7 daysRest7 days
20.9Points per game28.7
22.0Points allowed21.4
6th Mountain WestConference3rd Mountain West
−11
Point differentialseason to date
+65
228Passing yards / game61
117Rushing yards / game332
30%3rd-down conversion51%
14Takeaways8
0Sacks0
10Turnovers7
226Passing yards / game60
123Rushing yards / game324
30%3rd-down conversion49%
5Takeaways6
0Sacks0
2Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares San Jose St’s road games with Air Force’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
San Jose St
5-5
LWLLW
Wk 10Nov 7vs NIU
N Illinois19San Jose St30
N Illinois moneyline +355San Jose St moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs UNM
New Mexico21San Jose St16
New Mexico moneyline −909San Jose St moneyline +500
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ NEV
San Jose St13Nevada28
San Jose St moneyline +175Nevada moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ UTEP
San Jose St24UTEP11
San Jose St moneyline −263UTEP moneyline +210
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs WYO
Wyoming16San Jose St13
Wyoming moneyline +150San Jose St moneyline −189
LF/OT
Air Force
7-2
WWLWW
Wk 10Nov 7@ ARMY
Air Force24Army21
Air Force moneyline +143Army moneyline −179
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs CONN
UConn26Air Force35
UConn moneyline +103Air Force moneyline −135
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 23@ WYO
Air Force14Wyoming28
Air Force moneyline −286Wyoming moneyline +210
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs UNLV
UNLV31Air Force41
UNLV moneyline −118Air Force moneyline −104
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ NIU
Air Force28N Illinois7
Air Force moneyline −303N Illinois moneyline +194
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
SAN JOSE ST
0
Wins
Avg. points16.0 – 26.0
Avg. total42.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
AIR FORCE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 11San Jose St home
Air Force26San Jose St16
Air Force moneyline +180San Jose St moneyline −250
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SJSU)+340+340
Moneyline (AF)−476−476
Spread (AF)−10.5down −11.5
Total49.5down 47.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
San José State visits Air Force in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET. San José State comes in at 5-5 and Air Force at 7-2. The moneyline has San José State at +340 and Air Force at −476.
Our model predicts a final score of San Jose St 21, Air Force 28. Its picks: Air Force to win (−588); San José State +20.5 (−263); over 40.5 points (−270). The best pick is Air Force to win, at 91% confidence.