MoneylineBest pick
WMU MLodds down −833
Won 92%
W Michigan wins the game.
Confidence92%
Model81.3%
SportsbooksOdds86.5%
Edge−5.2
Western Michigan vs Akron prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
| AKR | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
W MICHIGAN 81%
Pre-game win chance
19% AKRON
WMU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 10, 10:13 PM ET
W Michigan vs Akron picks
3 picks · W Michigan by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
AKR +14.5odds up −110
Lost 70%
Akron wins, or loses by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence70%
Model51.2%
SportsbooksOdds52.3%
Edge−1.1
Total
Over 46.5odds down −185
Won 74%
The two teams score 47 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model54.4%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+3.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
W Michigan714072128
Akron77071421
Most likely final scoresWMU 28–21 AKR 0.6%WMU 27–24 AKR 0.4%WMU 35–21 AKR 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
W MichiganAkron
Offense
370▲ 566
Total yards
▼ 233352
185▲ 206
Passing yards
▼ 173216
185▲ 360
Rushing yards
▼ 60136
18▲ 26
First downs
▼ 1121
Scoring
4▲ 6
Touchdowns
= 22
2▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
0= 0
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 02
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
52▼ 25
Penalty yards
▼ 2261
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 296.5
Proj. 370
72%
Won · 566
Passing yards
Over 127.5
Proj. 184
72%
Won · 206
Rushing yards
Over 132.5
Proj. 185
72%
Won · 360
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
73%
Won · 26
Total yards
Over 278.5
Proj. 352
72%
Lost · 233
Passing yards
Over 159.5
Proj. 216
72%
Won · 173
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 136
72%
Lost · 60
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
75%
Lost · 11
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
W Michigan
QB
Broc Lowry14/23 · 183 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT
183pass yds
RB
Jalen Buckley17 carries · 94 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
94rush yds
WR/TE
Aveion Chenault4 rec · 68 yds · 0.3 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Baylin Brooks2 rec · 27 yds · 0.7 TD
27rec yds
Akron
QB
Cibastian Broughton19/31 · 216 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 1.0 INT
216pass yds
RB
Jordan Gant20 carries · 105 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec
105rush yds
WR/TE
Kyan Mason4 rec · 58 yds · 0.0 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Miles Burris3 rec · 41 yds · 0.0 TD
41rec yds
Road form. W Michigan is 3-2 on the road this season, winning by 1.8 points a game.
Home form. Akron is 1-3 at home, scoring 24.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at AKR +14.5 and is now AKR +15.5, a 1-point move toward W Michigan.
Rest. W Michigan comes in on 10 days’ rest, Akron on 7.
Streak. Akron has lost 7 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Western MichiganAkron
Western MichiganAkron
6-3Record1-8
3-2 roadRoad / home1-3 home
W1StreakL7
10 daysRest7 days
26.2Points per game19.1
19.2Points allowed32.2
+63
Point differentialseason to date
−118
162Passing yards / game217
165Rushing yards / game137
41%3rd-down conversion41%
12Takeaways9
0Sacks0
8Turnovers18
134Passing yards / game234
166Rushing yards / game163
44%3rd-down conversion42%
6Takeaways5
0Sacks0
5Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares W Michigan’s road games with Akron’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
W Michigan
6-3
WWWLW
Wk 9Oct 31vs BGSU
Bowling Green10W Michigan23
Bowling Green moneyline +480W Michigan moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ TOL
W Michigan38Toledo45
W Michigan moneyline +117Toledo moneyline −154
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ CMU
W Michigan21C Michigan14
W Michigan moneyline −278C Michigan moneyline +220
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs KENT
Kent State7W Michigan38
Kent State moneyline +380W Michigan moneyline −667
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ BUFF
W Michigan20Buffalo17
W Michigan moneyline −667Buffalo moneyline +400
WFINAL
Akron
1-8
LLLLL
Wk 10Nov 3vs OHIO
Ohio28Akron20
Ohio moneyline −588Akron moneyline +420
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ KENT
Akron20Kent State35
Akron moneyline +121Kent State moneyline −161
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ M-OH
Akron14Miami OH34
Akron moneyline +300Miami OH moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs EMU
E Michigan25Akron23
E Michigan moneyline −227Akron moneyline +156
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ CMU
Akron17C Michigan41
Akron moneyline +215C Michigan moneyline −303
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (WMU)−1000−1000
Moneyline (AKR)+525+525
Spread (AKR)+14.5up +15.5
Total46.5up 50.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Western Michigan beat Akron 42–14 in college football Week 11, on Tuesday, November 10 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Western Michigan at −1000 and Akron at +525.
Our model predicted a final score of W Michigan 28, Akron 21. Its picks: Western Michigan to win (−833), won; Akron +14.5 (−110), lost; over 46.5 points (−185), won. The best pick was Western Michigan to win, at 92% confidence.