Moneyline
TOL MLodds up −152
Won 82%
Toledo wins the game.
Confidence82%
Model61.9%
SportsbooksOdds62.0%
Edge−0.1
Western Michigan vs Toledo prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 14 | 21 | 3 | 38 |
| TOL | 14 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
W MICHIGAN 38%
Pre-game win chance
62% TOLEDO
TOL by 3 · 45 points
Updated Oct 24, 3:51 PM ET
W Michigan vs Toledo picks
3 picks · Toledo by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
TOL +3.5odds up −222
Won 81%
Toledo wins, or loses by three points or fewer.
Confidence81%
Model71.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge+2.1
TotalBest pick
Over 37.5odds down −357
Won 80%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence80%
Model72.9%
SportsbooksOdds70.4%
Edge+2.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
W Michigan014071421
Toledo77371424
Most likely final scoresWMU 21–24 TOL 0.6%WMU 21–28 TOL 0.6%WMU 17–24 TOL 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
W MichiganToledo
Offense
317▲ 351
Total yards
▲ 595407
171▲ 207
Passing yards
▲ 391232
146▼ 144
Rushing yards
▲ 204175
18= 18
First downs
▲ 3221
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 63
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 31
0▲ 1
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1▲ 3
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
44▲ 52
Penalty yards
▼ 6070
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 244.5
Proj. 317
72%
Won · 351
Passing yards
Over 114.5
Proj. 172
72%
Won · 207
Rushing yards
Over 93.5
Proj. 146
72%
Won · 144
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
73%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 334.5
Proj. 408
72%
Won · 595
Passing yards
Over 175.5
Proj. 233
72%
Won · 391
Rushing yards
Over 122.5
Proj. 175
72%
Won · 204
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
71%
Won · 32
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
W Michigan
QB
Broc Lowry14/24 · 162 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT
162pass yds
RB
Jalen Buckley15 carries · 69 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 2 rec
69rush yds
WR/TE
Aveion Chenault3 rec · 52 yds · 0.1 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Nathan Levicki2 rec · 27 yds · 0.1 TD
27rec yds
Toledo
QB
John Alan Richter18/29 · 224 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.0 INT
224pass yds
RB
CJ Miller11 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Adjatay Dabbs4 rec · 50 yds · 0.5 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Sam Lee3 rec · 27 yds · 0.0 TD
27rec yds
Road form. W Michigan is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 4.0 points a game.
Home form. Toledo is 3-1 at home, scoring 40.3 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 44.5 and is now 47.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. W Michigan has won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Western MichiganToledo
Western MichiganToledo
5-2Record5-2
3-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W3StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
25.0Points per game36.3
16.9Points allowed23.6
+57
Point differentialseason to date
+89
158Passing yards / game273
165Rushing yards / game185
45%3rd-down conversion44%
7Takeaways8
0Sacks0
3Turnovers8
116Passing yards / game307
172Rushing yards / game169
48%3rd-down conversion49%
4Takeaways4
0Sacks0
2Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares W Michigan’s road games with Toledo’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
W Michigan
5-2
WLWWW
Wk 7Oct 17@ CMU
W Michigan21C Michigan14
W Michigan moneyline −278C Michigan moneyline +220
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs KENT
Kent State7W Michigan38
Kent State moneyline +380W Michigan moneyline −667
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ BUFF
W Michigan20Buffalo17
W Michigan moneyline −667Buffalo moneyline +400
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs BSU
Boise St32W Michigan7
Boise St moneyline −370W Michigan moneyline +250
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ RICE
W Michigan28Rice21
W Michigan moneyline −400Rice moneyline +280
WFINAL
Toledo
5-2
WWWLW
Wk 7Oct 17@ EMU
Toledo34E Michigan14
Toledo moneyline −294E Michigan moneyline +230
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs BUFF
Buffalo23Toledo8
Buffalo moneyline +571Toledo moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ BALL
Toledo39Ball State24
Toledo moneyline −2000Ball State moneyline +710
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs SDSU
San Diego St16Toledo41
San Diego St moneyline +112Toledo moneyline −147
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs TEM
Temple48Toledo49
Temple moneyline +170Toledo moneyline −233
WF/OT
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
W MICHIGAN
1
Wins
Avg. points14.0 – 13.0
Avg. total27.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
TOLEDO
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 4Waldo Stadium
W Michigan14Toledo13
W Michigan moneyline −625Toledo moneyline +350
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (WMU)+116up +117
Moneyline (TOL)−152down −154
Spread (TOL)−2.5−2.5
Total44.5up 47.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Toledo beat Western Michigan 45–38 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Western Michigan at +117 and Toledo at −154.
Our model predicted a final score of W Michigan 21, Toledo 24. Its picks: Toledo to win (−152), won; Toledo +3.5 (−222), won; over 37.5 points (−357), won. The best pick was over 37.5 points, at 80% confidence.