UMass vs UConn Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MASS	3	0	0	13	16
CONN	7	14	7	7	35

UMass vs UConn picks

3 picks · UConn by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

CONN MLodds up −588 Won 95%

UConn wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model90.5% SportsbooksOdds88.7% Edge+1.8

Spread

CONN −7.5odds up −182 Won 83%

UConn wins by eight points or more.

Confidence83%

Model75.7% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+7.4

TotalBest pick

Over 41.5odds down −357 Won 83%

The two teams score 42 or more points between them.

Confidence83%

Model77.4% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+7.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

UMass070077

UConn1470142135

Most likely final scoresMASS 7–35 CONN 0.7%MASS 7–42 CONN 0.7%MASS 14–42 CONN 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

UMassUConn

Offense

322▼ 303 Total yards ▲ 438425

201▲ 250 Passing yards ▼ 173226

121▼ 53 Rushing yards ▲ 265199

18▼ 14 First downs ▼ 2122

Scoring

1▲ 2 Touchdowns ▲ 54

0▲ 1 Passing touchdowns = 22

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns = 22

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

52▲ 100 Penalty yards ▲ 10059

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 248.5 Proj. 322 72% Won · 303

Passing yards Over 144.5 Proj. 201 72% Won · 250

Rushing yards Over 68.5 Proj. 121 72% Lost · 53

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 18 74% Won · 14

Total yards Over 351.5 Proj. 425 72% Won · 438

Passing yards Over 168.5 Proj. 226 72% Won · 173

Rushing yards Over 146.5 Proj. 199 72% Won · 265

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 71% Won · 21

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

UMass

QB Logan Inagawa11/16 · 120 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.7 INT 120pass yds

RB Elijah Faulkner11 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 3 rec 39rush yds

WR/TE T.Y. Harding6 rec · 62 yds · 0.0 TD 62rec yds

WR/TE Jabari Lewis4 rec · 62 yds · 0.0 TD 62rec yds

UConn

QB Kalieb Osborne16/28 · 209 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT 209pass yds

RB Cyncir Bowers11 carries · 75 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec 75rush yds

WR/TE Ky Wilson3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD 34rec yds

WR/TE Ryder Treadway2 rec · 32 yds · 0.0 TD 32rec yds

Road form. UMass is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 12.7 points a game.

Home form. UConn is 1-2 at home, scoring 37.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at CONN −16.5 and is now CONN −12.5, a 4-point move toward UMass.

Rest. UMass comes in on 6 days’ rest, UConn on 13.

Streak. UMass has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

UMassUConn

4-3Record3-3

2-1 roadRoad / home1-2 home

L3StreakW1

6 daysRest13 days

28.0Points per game35.7

19.1Points allowed25.2

+62 Point differentialseason to date +63

179Passing yards / game257

160Rushing yards / game193

35%3rd-down conversion42%

13Takeaways7

0Sacks0

6Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UMass’ road games with UConn’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.