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UMass vs Toledo prediction, picks and odds

Back to the college football picks NCAA FBS picks Week 11 Wednesday, November 11 · 7:30 PM ET
UMass
Away · 5-4ML +460
7:30PM Kickoff Wed, Nov 11 · ET
Toledo
ML −714Home · 7-2
SpreadTOL −14.5
Total51.5 points
Kickoff in4h 21m
Predictions3 Comparison Recent games Standings Odds
Updated 3:03 PM ET

UMass vs Toledo picks

3 picks · Toledo by 28 · 56 points
Moneyline
TOL MLodds down −714 95%
Toledo wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model90.4% SportsbooksOdds84.7% Edge+5.7
SpreadBest pick
TOL −14.5odds down −118 75%
Toledo wins by 15 points or more.
Confidence75%
Model62.8% SportsbooksOdds49.1% Edge+13.7
Total
Over 52.5odds up −109 74%
The two teams score 53 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model48.9% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge−1.1

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UMass0707714
Toledo1414772842
Most likely final scoresMASS 14–42 TOL 0.6%MASS 13–41 TOL 0.5%MASS 17–41 TOL 0.4%
Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UMassToledo

Offense

281 Total yards 425
185 Passing yards 215
96 Rushing yards 210
16 First downs 22

Scoring

2 Touchdowns 5
1 Passing touchdowns 2
1 Rushing touchdowns 3
0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1
1 Interceptions thrown 1
1 Fumbles lost 1
0 Sacks allowed 0
50 Penalty yards 67
Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards Over 207.5 Proj. 281 72%
Passing yards Over 127.5 Proj. 185 72%
Rushing yards Over 43.5 Proj. 96 72%
First downs Over 11.5 Proj. 16 74%
Total yards Over 351.5 Proj. 425 72%
Passing yards Over 158.5 Proj. 215 72%
Rushing yards Over 157.5 Proj. 209 72%
First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74%
Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UMass
QB William Watson III16/29 · 175 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 175pass yds
RB Elijah Faulkner9 carries · 25 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec 25rush yds
WR/TE Kezion DiaJohnson3 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD 38rec yds
WR/TE Reece Adkins2 rec · 20 yds · 0.0 TD 20rec yds
Toledo
QB John Alan Richter18/29 · 215 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 215pass yds
RB CJ Miller17 carries · 103 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 1 rec 103rush yds
WR/TE Bryson Hammer4 rec · 59 yds · 0.4 TD 59rec yds
WR/TE Adjatay Dabbs4 rec · 58 yds · 1.0 TD 58rec yds

UMass visits Toledo in college football Week 11, on Wednesday, November 11 at 7:30 PM ET. UMass comes in at 5-4 and Toledo at 7-2. The moneyline has UMass at +460 and Toledo at −714.

Our model predicts a final score of UMass 14, Toledo 42. Its picks: Toledo to win (−714); Toledo −14.5 (−118); over 52.5 points (−109). The best pick is Toledo −14.5, at 75% confidence.