UMass vs Buffalo State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
MASS	7	8	0	3	0	18
BUFF	3	5	7	3	7	25

UMass vs Buffalo picks

3 picks · Buffalo by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

BUFF ML−270 Won 83%

Buffalo wins the game.

Confidence83%

Model65.6% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge−4.9

Spread

MASS +13.5odds up −238 Won 72%

UMass wins, or loses by 13 points or fewer.

Confidence72%

Model56.4% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge−12.3

Total

Over 35.5odds down −270 Won 74%

The two teams score 36 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model74.3% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+5.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

UMass07014721

Buffalo771401428

Most likely final scoresMASS 21–28 BUFF 0.6%MASS 21–24 BUFF 0.6%MASS 17–24 BUFF 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

UMassBuffalo

Offense

320▲ 339 Total yards ▼ 351355

189▼ 168 Passing yards ▼ 134189

131▲ 171 Rushing yards ▲ 217166

17= 17 First downs ▼ 1920

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 23

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▲ 21

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

62▼ 57 Penalty yards ▼ 3255

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 246.5 Proj. 320 72% Won · 339

Passing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 189 72% Won · 168

Rushing yards Over 79.5 Proj. 131 72% Won · 171

First downs Over 12.5 Proj. 17 74% Won · 17

Total yards Over 282.5 Proj. 355 72% Won · 351

Passing yards Over 132.5 Proj. 190 72% Won · 134

Rushing yards Over 113.5 Proj. 166 72% Won · 217

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

UMass

QB Aedan McCarthy9/19 · 82 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT 82pass yds

RB Curtis Kimmons IV8 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Jabari Lewis4 rec · 63 yds · 0.0 TD 63rec yds

WR/TE T.Y. Harding5 rec · 57 yds · 0.3 TD 57rec yds

Buffalo

QB Jason Wright14/27 · 175 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 175pass yds

RB Messiah Burch15 carries · 86 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 86rush yds

WR/TE Chance Morrow6 rec · 80 yds · 0.9 TD 80rec yds

WR/TE Patrick Clacks III1 rec · 20 yds · 0.1 TD 20rec yds

Road form. UMass is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 22.5 points a game.

Home form. Buffalo is 2-1 at home, scoring 23.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BUFF −4.5 and is now BUFF −6.5, a 2-point move toward Buffalo.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

UMassBuffalo State

4-2Record3-3

2-0 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L2StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

29.7Points per game20.8

18.2Points allowed26.8

+69 Point differentialseason to date −36

181Passing yards / game163

158Rushing yards / game157

36%3rd-down conversion36%

11Takeaways5

0Sacks0

4Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UMass’ road games with Buffalo’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.