Moneyline
TOL MLodds up −3333
Won 95%
Toledo wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model92.7%
SportsbooksOdds97.7%
Edge−5.0
Toledo vs Sacramento State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 7 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| SAC | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
TOLEDO 93%
Pre-game win chance
7% SACRAMENTO ST
TOL by 24 · 52 points
Updated Nov 4, 10:36 PM ET
Toledo vs Sacramento St picks
3 picks · Toledo by 24 · 52 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
SAC +27.5odds down −145
Won 73%
Sacramento St wins, or loses by 27 points or fewer.
Confidence73%
Model57.2%
SportsbooksOdds48.3%
Edge+8.9
TotalBest pick
Over 50.5odds down −152
Lost 70%
The two teams score 51 or more points between them.
Confidence70%
Model57.6%
SportsbooksOdds53.4%
Edge+4.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Toledo717772438
Sacramento St0707714
Most likely final scoresTOL 38–14 SAC 0.6%TOL 35–21 SAC 0.5%TOL 42–21 SAC 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ToledoSacramento St
Offense
445▼ 290
Total yards
▼ 224278
249▼ 60
Passing yards
▲ 216170
196▲ 230
Rushing yards
▼ 8108
23▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1217
Scoring
5▼ 2
Touchdowns
= 22
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
3▼ 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▲ 10
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
63▼ 35
Penalty yards
▼ 4055
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 372.5
Proj. 445
72%
Lost · 290
Passing yards
Over 192.5
Proj. 249
72%
Lost · 60
Rushing yards
Over 143.5
Proj. 196
72%
Won · 230
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 23
74%
Lost · 17
Total yards
Over 205.5
Proj. 278
72%
Won · 224
Passing yards
Over 112.5
Proj. 170
72%
Won · 216
Rushing yards
Over 56.5
Proj. 108
72%
Lost · 8
First downs
Over 12.5
Proj. 17
74%
Lost · 12
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Toledo
QB
John Alan Richter19/30 · 249 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
249pass yds
RB
CJ Miller15 carries · 89 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 1 rec
89rush yds
WR/TE
Adjatay Dabbs4 rec · 63 yds · 0.7 TD
63rec yds
WR/TE
Terrell Crosby Jr.3 rec · 39 yds · 0.0 TD
39rec yds
Sacramento St
QB
Jackson Sharman15/30 · 155 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT
155pass yds
RB
Isaiah Ene11 carries · 58 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Matthew Coleman4 rec · 41 yds · 0.4 TD
41rec yds
WR/TE
Onterrio Smith Jr.3 rec · 35 yds · 0.2 TD
35rec yds
Road form. Toledo is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 8.3 points a game.
Home form. Sacramento St is 2-3 at home, scoring 21.2 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at SAC +27.5 and is now SAC +25.5, a 2-point move toward Sacramento St.
Rest. Toledo comes in on 11 days’ rest, Sacramento St on 5.
Tale of the tape
ToledoSacramento State
ToledoSacramento State
6-2Record2-7
2-1 roadRoad / home2-3 home
W2StreakW1
11 daysRest5 days
37.4Points per game17.0
25.4Points allowed30.3
+96
Point differentialseason to date
−120
288Passing yards / game188
187Rushing yards / game108
44%3rd-down conversion33%
11Takeaways10
0Sacks0
10Turnovers15
228Passing yards / game193
207Rushing yards / game137
36%3rd-down conversion41%
4Takeaways6
0Sacks0
2Turnovers10
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Toledo’s road games with Sacramento St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Toledo
6-2
WWLWW
Wk 8Oct 24vs WMU
W Michigan38Toledo45
W Michigan moneyline +117Toledo moneyline −154
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ EMU
Toledo34E Michigan14
Toledo moneyline −294E Michigan moneyline +230
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs BUFF
Buffalo23Toledo8
Buffalo moneyline +571Toledo moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ BALL
Toledo39Ball State24
Toledo moneyline −2000Ball State moneyline +710
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs SDSU
San Diego St16Toledo41
San Diego St moneyline +112Toledo moneyline −147
WFINAL
Sacramento St
2-7
LLLLW
Wk 9Oct 30vs KENT
Kent State10Sacramento St31
Kent State moneyline −303Sacramento St moneyline +225
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ BALL
Sacramento St17Ball State34
Sacramento St moneyline +475Ball State moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs OHIO
Ohio48Sacramento St7
Ohio moneyline −1250Sacramento St moneyline +700
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ BGSU
Sacramento St10Bowling Green38
Sacramento St moneyline +270Bowling Green moneyline −357
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MASS
UMass35Sacramento St6
UMass moneyline −233Sacramento St moneyline +170
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TOL)−5000−5000
Moneyline (SAC)+1400+1400
Spread (SAC)+27.5down +25.5
Total50.5up 52.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Toledo beat Sacramento State 20–17 in college football Week 10, on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Toledo at −5000 and Sacramento State at +1400.
Our model predicted a final score of Toledo 38, Sacramento St 14. Its picks: Toledo to win (−3333), won; Sacramento State +27.5 (−145), won; over 50.5 points (−152), lost. The best pick was over 50.5 points, at 70% confidence.