Toledo vs Eastern Michigan Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TOL	10	21	3	0	34
EMU	0	7	7	0	14

Toledo vs E Michigan picks

3 picks · Toledo by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

TOL MLodds down −303 Won 94%

Toledo wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model76.0% SportsbooksOdds68.8% Edge+7.2

SpreadBest pick

TOL +1.5odds down −270 Won 79%

Toledo wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model77.8% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+8.6

Total

Under 61.5odds down −278 Won 74%

The two teams score 61 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model70.1% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+0.8

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Toledo7140142135

E Michigan070077

Most likely final scoresTOL 35–7 EMU 0.6%TOL 28–21 EMU 0.6%TOL 38–14 EMU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

ToledoE Michigan

Offense

422▲ 480 Total yards ▼ 276326

240▲ 288 Passing yards ▲ 242200

182▲ 192 Rushing yards ▼ 34126

20▲ 21 First downs ▲ 2119

Scoring

4= 4 Touchdowns ▲ 21

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 21

2▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 00

2= 2 Field goals made = 00

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▲ 21

0 Sacks allowed 0

69▲ 118 Penalty yards ▼ 3045

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 348.5 Proj. 422 72% Won · 480

Passing yards Over 182.5 Proj. 240 72% Won · 288

Rushing yards Over 129.5 Proj. 182 72% Won · 192

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 21

Total yards Over 253.5 Proj. 327 72% Won · 276

Passing yards Over 143.5 Proj. 201 72% Won · 242

Rushing yards Over 73.5 Proj. 126 72% Lost · 34

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 71% Won · 21

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Toledo

QB John Alan Richter19/29 · 231 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT 231pass yds

RB Connor Walendzak11 carries · 64 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 2 rec 64rush yds

WR/TE Adjatay Dabbs4 rec · 59 yds · 0.6 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE Sam Lee2 rec · 25 yds · 0.0 TD 25rec yds

E Michigan

QB Noah Kim19/34 · 198 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 198pass yds

RB Joey Mattord9 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec 38rush yds

WR/TE Ben Prosper5 rec · 51 yds · 0.2 TD 51rec yds

WR/TE Joshua Long4 rec · 40 yds · 0.1 TD 40rec yds

Road form. Toledo is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 2.5 points a game.

Home form. E Michigan is 2-1 at home, scoring 26.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at EMU +5.5 and is now EMU +7.5, a 2-point move toward Toledo.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. E Michigan has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

ToledoEastern Michigan

4-2Record4-3

1-1 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L1StreakW3

7 daysRest7 days

36.7Points per game22.6

25.2Points allowed24.7

+69 Point differentialseason to date −15

271Passing yards / game211

184Rushing yards / game115

44%3rd-down conversion43%

6Takeaways8

0Sacks0

7Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Toledo’s road games with E Michigan’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.