Sacramento State vs Ball State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SAC	3	7	7	0	17
BALL	0	20	7	7	34

Sacramento St vs Ball State picks

3 picks · Ball State by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

BALL MLodds down −769 Won 91%

Ball State wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model72.0% SportsbooksOdds81.7% Edge−9.7

Spread

SAC +19.5odds up −189 Won 81%

Sacramento St wins, or loses by 19 points or fewer.

Confidence81%

Model72.9% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+4.0

Total

Over 43.5odds down −270 Won 74%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.7% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge−1.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Sacramento St77071421

Ball State0140141428

Most likely final scoresSAC 21–28 BALL 0.5%SAC 24–27 BALL 0.5%SAC 28–31 BALL 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Sacramento StBall State

Offense

347▼ 266 Total yards ▲ 417369

192▲ 212 Passing yards ▲ 234197

155▼ 54 Rushing yards ▲ 183172

19▼ 16 First downs ▲ 2620

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▲ 54

2= 2 Passing touchdowns = 22

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

67▲ 68 Penalty yards ▲ 7356

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 273.5 Proj. 347 72% Lost · 266

Passing yards Over 135.5 Proj. 192 72% Won · 212

Rushing yards Over 102.5 Proj. 154 72% Lost · 54

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 16

Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 369 72% Won · 417

Passing yards Over 139.5 Proj. 197 72% Won · 234

Rushing yards Over 119.5 Proj. 172 72% Won · 183

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 26

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Sacramento St

QB Jackson Sharman16/28 · 180 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT 180pass yds

RB Isaiah Ene8 carries · 44 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec 44rush yds

WR/TE Matthew Coleman5 rec · 72 yds · 1.1 TD 72rec yds

WR/TE Onterrio Smith Jr.3 rec · 38 yds · 0.3 TD 38rec yds

Ball State

QB Keldric Luster17/25 · 183 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 183pass yds

RB TJ Horton10 carries · 74 rush yds · 1.4 TD · 1 rec 74rush yds

WR/TE Jabari Smith Jr.4 rec · 50 yds · 0.7 TD 50rec yds

WR/TE Jamarion McDougle3 rec · 35 yds · 0.3 TD 35rec yds

Road form. Sacramento St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 28.3 points a game.

Home form. Ball State is 1-1 at home, scoring 32.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BALL −10.5 and is now BALL −14.5, a 4-point move toward Ball State.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Sacramento St has lost 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Sacramento StateBall State

1-6Record2-5

0-3 roadRoad / home1-1 home

L5StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

15.0Points per game20.3

32.7Points allowed37.9

−124 Point differentialseason to date −123

195Passing yards / game191

108Rushing yards / game135

34%3rd-down conversion31%

3Takeaways5

0Sacks0

13Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Sacramento St’s road games with Ball State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.