Ohio vs Sacramento State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OHIO	7	20	14	7	48
SAC	0	0	0	7	7

Ohio vs Sacramento St picks

3 picks · Ohio by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

OHIO MLodds down −1111 Won 94%

Ohio wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model75.7% SportsbooksOdds86.4% Edge−10.7

SpreadBest pick

SAC +22.5odds up −256 Lost 78%

Sacramento St wins, or loses by 22 points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model74.1% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+4.8

Total

Over 41.5odds up −200 Won 74%

The two teams score 42 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.6% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+2.7

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Ohio0141401428

Sacramento St77071421

Most likely final scoresOHIO 28–21 SAC 0.6%OHIO 24–21 SAC 0.6%OHIO 28–14 SAC 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

OhioSacramento St

Offense

371▲ 468 Total yards ▼ 267330

172▲ 203 Passing yards ▼ 140193

199▲ 265 Rushing yards ▼ 127137

20▲ 30 First downs ▼ 1318

Scoring

4▲ 6 Touchdowns ▼ 13

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 11

2▲ 5 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

48▲ 55 Penalty yards ▲ 13056

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 298.5 Proj. 371 72% Won · 468

Passing yards Over 115.5 Proj. 172 72% Won · 203

Rushing yards Over 146.5 Proj. 199 72% Won · 265

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 30

Total yards Over 256.5 Proj. 330 72% Won · 267

Passing yards Over 136.5 Proj. 193 72% Won · 140

Rushing yards Over 84.5 Proj. 137 72% Won · 127

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 19 73% Lost · 13

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Ohio

QB Nick Poulos10/17 · 139 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.0 INT 139pass yds

RB Victor Rosa11 carries · 49 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 49rush yds

WR/TE Riley Neer5 rec · 72 yds · 1.0 TD 72rec yds

WR/TE Jake Furtney3 rec · 27 yds · 0.0 TD 27rec yds

Sacramento St

QB Jackson Sharman17/28 · 193 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 193pass yds

RB Isaiah Ene8 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Matthew Coleman4 rec · 72 yds · 0.7 TD 72rec yds

WR/TE Raiden Brown3 rec · 27 yds · 0.0 TD 27rec yds

Road form. Ohio is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 10.0 points a game.

Home form. Sacramento St is 1-2 at home, scoring 22.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at SAC +13.5 and is now SAC +16.5, a 3-point move toward Ohio.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Ohio has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

OhioSacramento State

4-2Record1-5

1-2 roadRoad / home1-2 home

W3StreakL4

7 daysRest7 days

27.5Points per game16.3

24.7Points allowed30.2

+17 Point differentialseason to date −83

158Passing yards / game204

197Rushing yards / game104

52%3rd-down conversion35%

4Takeaways3

0Sacks0

8Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Ohio’s road games with Sacramento St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.