Moneyline
OHIO MLodds down −123
Lost 60%
Ohio wins the game.
Confidence60%
Model53.3%
SportsbooksOdds48.2%
Edge+5.1
Ohio vs Miami (OH) prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 10, 11:59 PM ET
Ohio vs Miami OH picks
3 picks · Ohio by 3 · 51 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
OHIO +1.5odds down −133
Lost 74%
Ohio wins, or loses by one point or fewer.
Confidence74%
Model55.5%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+5.5
Total
Over 48.5odds up +100
Won 74%
The two teams score 49 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model48.0%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge−2.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Ohio0141301427
Miami OH010771024
Most likely final scoresOHIO 27–24 M-OH 0.5%OHIO 28–21 M-OH 0.5%OHIO 31–24 M-OH 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
OhioMiami OH
Offense
356▲ 381
Total yards
▲ 361342
221▲ 229
Passing yards
▼ 153194
135▲ 152
Rushing yards
▲ 208148
19▲ 21
First downs
▼ 1519
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
▲ 43
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
2▼ 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▼ 44
Penalty yards
▲ 6957
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 283.5
Proj. 356
72%
Won · 381
Passing yards
Over 163.5
Proj. 221
72%
Won · 229
Rushing yards
Over 82.5
Proj. 135
72%
Won · 152
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 268.5
Proj. 342
72%
Won · 361
Passing yards
Over 137.5
Proj. 194
72%
Won · 153
Rushing yards
Over 95.5
Proj. 148
72%
Won · 208
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
73%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Ohio
QB
Nick Poulos16/26 · 211 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
211pass yds
RB
Duncan Brune12 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
52rush yds
WR/TE
Riley Neer5 rec · 69 yds · 0.1 TD
69rec yds
WR/TE
Preston Bowman3 rec · 38 yds · 0.3 TD
38rec yds
Miami OH
QB
Caleb Heavner12/22 · 137 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.7 INT
137pass yds
RB
D'Shawntae Jones8 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.2 TD
32rush yds
WR/TE
Maleek Huggins4 rec · 52 yds · 0.0 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Braylon Isom4 rec · 44 yds · 0.2 TD
44rec yds
Road form. Ohio is 3-2 on the road this season, winning by 3.8 points a game.
Home form. Miami OH is 3-2 at home, scoring 30.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at M-OH −1.5 and is now M-OH −0.5, a 1-point move toward Ohio.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Ohio has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
OhioMiami (OH)
OhioMiami (OH)
7-2Record5-4
3-2 roadRoad / home3-2 home
W6StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
29.4Points per game27.4
21.7Points allowed26.7
+70
Point differentialseason to date
+7
179Passing yards / game210
189Rushing yards / game147
48%3rd-down conversion36%
8Takeaways10
0Sacks0
11Turnovers7
174Passing yards / game196
180Rushing yards / game184
45%3rd-down conversion36%
5Takeaways8
0Sacks0
6Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Ohio’s road games with Miami OH’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Ohio
7-2
WWWWW
Wk 10Nov 3@ AKR
Ohio28Akron20
Ohio moneyline −588Akron moneyline +420
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs EMU
E Michigan20Ohio24
E Michigan moneyline +370Ohio moneyline −588
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ SAC
Ohio48Sacramento St7
Ohio moneyline −1250Sacramento St moneyline +700
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs CMU
C Michigan14Ohio31
C Michigan moneyline +107Ohio moneyline −145
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ KENT
Ohio13Kent State10
Ohio moneyline −182Kent State moneyline +140
WFINAL
Miami OH
5-4
LWWWL
Wk 10Nov 3vs BUFF
Buffalo34Miami OH31
Buffalo moneyline +215Miami OH moneyline −278
LF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24@ CMU
Miami OH28C Michigan27
Miami OH moneyline −192C Michigan moneyline +143
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs AKR
Akron14Miami OH34
Akron moneyline +300Miami OH moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ MASS
Miami OH20UMass19
Miami OH moneyline −244UMass moneyline +190
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs BGSU
Bowling Green24Miami OH20
Bowling Green moneyline +360Miami OH moneyline −556
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
OHIO
1
Wins
Avg. points24.0 – 20.0
Avg. total44.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
MIAMI OH
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 11Ohio home
Miami OH20Ohio24
Miami OH moneyline +118Ohio moneyline −152
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (OHIO)−123−123
Moneyline (M-OH)−108−108
Spread (M-OH)−1.5up −0.5
Total48.5down 47.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Miami (OH) beat Ohio 34–17 in college football Week 11, on Tuesday, November 10 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Ohio at −123 and Miami (OH) at −108.
Our model predicted a final score of Ohio 27, Miami OH 24. Its picks: Ohio to win (−123), lost; Ohio +1.5 (−133), lost; over 48.5 points (+100), won. The best pick was Ohio +1.5, at 74% confidence.