MoneylineBest pick
OHIO MLodds down −625
Won 91%
Ohio wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model75.5%
SportsbooksOdds82.0%
Edge−6.5
Ohio vs Akron prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 3, 10:31 PM ET
Ohio vs Akron picks
3 picks · Ohio by 3 · 59 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
AKR +12.5odds up −110
Won 71%
Akron wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.
Confidence71%
Model54.2%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+4.2
Total
Over 48.5odds down −161
Lost 74%
The two teams score 49 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model55.1%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+4.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Ohio773141431
Akron77771428
Most likely final scoresOHIO 31–28 AKR 0.5%OHIO 27–24 AKR 0.5%OHIO 28–21 AKR 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
OhioAkron
Offense
389▼ 358
Total yards
▲ 392345
194▲ 197
Passing yards
▲ 232213
195▼ 161
Rushing yards
▲ 160132
20▼ 12
First downs
▲ 2619
Scoring
4= 4
Touchdowns
▼ 13
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 42
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
50▲ 88
Penalty yards
▼ 3063
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 316.5
Proj. 389
72%
Won · 358
Passing yards
Over 136.5
Proj. 194
72%
Won · 197
Rushing yards
Over 143.5
Proj. 195
72%
Won · 161
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
72%
Lost · 12
Total yards
Over 271.5
Proj. 345
72%
Won · 392
Passing yards
Over 155.5
Proj. 213
72%
Won · 232
Rushing yards
Over 79.5
Proj. 132
72%
Won · 160
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 26
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Ohio
QB
Nick Poulos14/22 · 182 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT
182pass yds
RB
Duncan Brune12 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
64rush yds
WR/TE
Riley Neer5 rec · 59 yds · 0.6 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Preston Bowman3 rec · 34 yds · 0.4 TD
34rec yds
Akron
QB
Brayden Roggow18/28 · 206 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
206pass yds
RB
Jordan Gant18 carries · 100 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
100rush yds
WR/TE
Marcel Williams5 rec · 51 yds · 1.2 TD
51rec yds
WR/TE
Miles Burris3 rec · 39 yds · 0.0 TD
39rec yds
Road form. Ohio is 2-2 on the road this season, winning by 2.8 points a game.
Home form. Akron is 1-2 at home, scoring 26.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at AKR +11.5 and is now AKR +12.5, a 1-point move toward Ohio.
Rest. Both teams come in on 10 days’ rest.
Streak. Ohio has won 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
OhioAkron
OhioAkron
6-2Record1-7
2-2 roadRoad / home1-2 home
W5StreakL6
10 daysRest10 days
29.6Points per game19.0
21.9Points allowed32.8
+62
Point differentialseason to date
−110
177Passing yards / game215
192Rushing yards / game135
49%3rd-down conversion41%
6Takeaways8
0Sacks0
10Turnovers16
168Passing yards / game235
185Rushing yards / game164
48%3rd-down conversion42%
3Takeaways4
0Sacks0
5Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Ohio’s road games with Akron’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Ohio
6-2
WWWWW
Wk 8Oct 24vs EMU
E Michigan20Ohio24
E Michigan moneyline +370Ohio moneyline −588
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ SAC
Ohio48Sacramento St7
Ohio moneyline −1250Sacramento St moneyline +700
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs CMU
C Michigan14Ohio31
C Michigan moneyline +107Ohio moneyline −145
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ KENT
Ohio13Kent State10
Ohio moneyline −182Kent State moneyline +140
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs STON
Stonehill7Ohio35
Stonehill moneyline +1500Ohio moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Akron
1-7
LLLLL
Wk 8Oct 24@ KENT
Akron20Kent State35
Akron moneyline +121Kent State moneyline −161
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ M-OH
Akron14Miami OH34
Akron moneyline +300Miami OH moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs EMU
E Michigan25Akron23
E Michigan moneyline −227Akron moneyline +156
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ CMU
Akron17C Michigan41
Akron moneyline +215C Michigan moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs UNLV
UNLV38Akron10
UNLV moneyline −625Akron moneyline +390
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (OHIO)−667up −588
Moneyline (AKR)+450down +420
Spread (AKR)+11.5up +12.5
Total48.5up 51.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Ohio beat Akron 28–20 in college football Week 10, on Tuesday, November 3 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Ohio at −588 and Akron at +420.
Our model predicted a final score of Ohio 31, Akron 28. Its picks: Ohio to win (−625), won; Akron +12.5 (−110), won; over 48.5 points (−161), lost. The best pick was Ohio to win, at 91% confidence.