Moneyline
CMU MLodds up +137
Lost 56%
C Michigan wins the game.
Confidence56%
Model51.9%
SportsbooksOdds47.8%
Edge+4.1
Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-OH | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| CMU | 3 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 27 |
MIAMI OH 48%
Pre-game win chance
52% C MICHIGAN
CMU by 3 · 45 points
Updated Oct 24, 4:34 PM ET
Miami OH vs C Michigan picks
3 picks · C Michigan by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
CMU +8.5odds up −213
Won 78%
C Michigan wins, or loses by eight points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model75.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+5.1
Total
Over 36.5odds up −182
Won 74%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model68.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge−0.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Miami OH77701421
C Michigan014731424
Most likely final scoresM-OH 21–24 CMU 0.5%M-OH 17–24 CMU 0.5%M-OH 17–20 CMU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Miami OHC Michigan
Offense
334▲ 360
Total yards
▼ 285351
172▲ 221
Passing yards
▲ 221202
162▼ 139
Rushing yards
▼ 64149
18▲ 25
First downs
▼ 1618
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
= 33
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
2▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
0= 0
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
52▲ 69
Penalty yards
▲ 8352
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 261.5
Proj. 334
72%
Won · 360
Passing yards
Over 115.5
Proj. 173
72%
Won · 221
Rushing yards
Over 109.5
Proj. 162
72%
Won · 139
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
74%
Won · 25
Total yards
Over 277.5
Proj. 351
72%
Won · 285
Passing yards
Over 145.5
Proj. 202
72%
Won · 221
Rushing yards
Over 96.5
Proj. 149
72%
Lost · 64
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Miami OH
QB
Caleb Heavner7/15 · 70 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.7 INT
70pass yds
RB
Rodney Nelson11 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Lynel BillupsWilliams3 rec · 38 yds · 0.3 TD
38rec yds
WR/TE
Damarion Witten2 rec · 30 yds · 0.3 TD
30rec yds
C Michigan
QB
Angel H Flores12/19 · 128 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.2 INT
128pass yds
RB
Jayden Clerveaux7 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
32rush yds
WR/TE
Langston Lewis3 rec · 60 yds · 0.3 TD
60rec yds
WR/TE
Brock Townsend4 rec · 39 yds · 0.0 TD
39rec yds
Road form. Miami OH is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 16.0 points a game.
Home form. C Michigan is 3-1 at home, scoring 23.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at CMU −1.5 and is now CMU +3.5, a 5-point move toward Miami OH.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Miami (OH)Central Michigan
Miami (OH)Central Michigan
4-3Record3-4
1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W2StreakL2
7 daysRest7 days
26.9Points per game16.6
25.6Points allowed25.6
+9
Point differentialseason to date
−63
216Passing yards / game108
142Rushing yards / game184
34%3rd-down conversion35%
8Takeaways12
0Sacks0
5Turnovers11
230Passing yards / game109
90Rushing yards / game257
32%3rd-down conversion34%
2Takeaways10
0Sacks0
3Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Miami OH’s road games with C Michigan’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Miami OH
4-3
LWLWW
Wk 7Oct 17vs AKR
Akron14Miami OH34
Akron moneyline +300Miami OH moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ MASS
Miami OH20UMass19
Miami OH moneyline −244UMass moneyline +190
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs BGSU
Bowling Green24Miami OH20
Bowling Green moneyline +360Miami OH moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs CONN
UConn21Miami OH24
UConn moneyline +110Miami OH moneyline −143
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ CIN
Miami OH31Cincinnati35
Miami OH moneyline +460Cincinnati moneyline −833
LFINAL
C Michigan
3-4
WLWLL
Wk 7Oct 17vs WMU
W Michigan21C Michigan14
W Michigan moneyline −278C Michigan moneyline +220
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ OHIO
C Michigan14Ohio31
C Michigan moneyline +107Ohio moneyline −145
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs AKR
Akron17C Michigan41
Akron moneyline +215C Michigan moneyline −303
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ MIA
C Michigan3Miami52
C Michigan: no odds on recordMiami: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs WYO
Wyoming10C Michigan24
Wyoming moneyline −127C Michigan moneyline −105
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (M-OH)−182down −192
Moneyline (CMU)+138up +143
Spread (CMU)−1.5up +3.5
Total43.5down 40.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Miami (OH) beat Central Michigan 28–27 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 1:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Miami (OH) at −192 and Central Michigan at +143.
Our model predicted a final score of Miami OH 21, C Michigan 24. Its picks: Central Michigan to win (+137), lost; Central Michigan +8.5 (−213), won; over 36.5 points (−182), won. The best pick was Central Michigan +8.5, at 78% confidence.