Kent State vs South Florida Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
KENT	2	0	0	0	2
USF	0	10	7	12	29

Kent State vs South Florida picks

3 picks · South Florida by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

USF MLodds down −2500 Won 95%

South Florida wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model94.2% SportsbooksOdds93.7% Edge+0.5

SpreadBest pick

USF −12.5odds down −278 Won 79%

South Florida wins by 13 points or more.

Confidence79%

Model79.5% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+9.7

Total

Over 39.5odds up −250 Lost 74%

The two teams score 40 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model70.5% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge+0.1

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Kent State070077

South Florida714772135

Most likely final scoresKENT 7–35 USF 0.7%KENT 14–42 USF 0.7%KENT 7–42 USF 0.7%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Kent StateSouth Florida

Offense

301▼ 228 Total yards ▼ 271410

178▼ 165 Passing yards ▼ 193226

123▼ 63 Rushing yards ▼ 78184

17▼ 15 First downs ▼ 1622

Scoring

1▼ 0 Touchdowns ▼ 24

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

0= 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

0= 0 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

63▼ 38 Penalty yards ▲ 6249

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 227.5 Proj. 301 72% Won · 228

Passing yards Over 120.5 Proj. 178 72% Won · 165

Rushing yards Over 70.5 Proj. 123 72% Lost · 63

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 70% Won · 15

Total yards Over 337.5 Proj. 410 72% Lost · 271

Passing yards Over 168.5 Proj. 226 72% Won · 193

Rushing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 184 72% Lost · 78

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 23 74% Lost · 16

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Kent State

QB Dru Deshields15/26 · 169 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT 169pass yds

RB Mason Blakemore9 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 38rush yds

WR/TE Wayne Harris4 rec · 62 yds · 0.3 TD 62rec yds

WR/TE Da'Realyst Clark4 rec · 43 yds · 0.3 TD 43rec yds

South Florida

QB Michael Van Buren Jr.17/26 · 222 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT 222pass yds

RB D.J. Crowther17 carries · 96 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec 96rush yds

WR/TE Bryson Rodgers5 rec · 64 yds · 0.8 TD 64rec yds

WR/TE Joshua Porter4 rec · 52 yds · 0.8 TD 52rec yds

Road form. Kent State is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 48.0 points a game.

Home form. South Florida is 2-1 at home, scoring 30.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at USF −18.5 and is now USF −20.5, a 2-point move toward South Florida.

Rest. Kent State comes in on 7 days’ rest, South Florida on 9.

Tale of the tape

Kent StateSouth Florida

2-4Record4-2

0-3 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L2StreakL2

7 daysRest9 days

13.7Points per game26.2

32.5Points allowed17.3

−113 Point differentialseason to date +53

171Passing yards / game182

109Rushing yards / game153

37%3rd-down conversion42%

6Takeaways6

0Sacks0

10Turnovers4

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kent State’s road games with South Florida’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.