Kent State vs Sacramento State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
KENT	7	3	0	0	10
SAC	0	6	11	14	31

Kent State vs Sacramento St picks

3 picks · Kent State by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

KENT MLodds up −323 Lost 93%

Kent State wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model66.5% SportsbooksOdds78.8% Edge−12.3

SpreadBest pick

SAC +17.5odds down −323 Won 78%

Sacramento St wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model74.4% SportsbooksOdds68.6% Edge+5.8

Total

Over 39.5−256 Won 74%

The two teams score 40 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model72.0% SportsbooksOdds68.6% Edge+3.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Kent State014771428

Sacramento St014071421

Most likely final scoresKENT 28–21 SAC 0.8%KENT 27–24 SAC 0.7%KENT 24–21 SAC 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Kent StateSacramento St

Offense

355▼ 302 Total yards ▼ 278335

211▼ 209 Passing yards ▼ 117201

144▼ 93 Rushing yards ▲ 161134

20▼ 15 First downs ▼ 1619

Scoring

4▼ 1 Touchdowns = 33

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

Ball security

1▲ 5 Turnovers = 11

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▲ 3 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

57▼ 46 Penalty yards ▲ 8971

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 281.5 Proj. 355 72% Won · 302

Passing yards Over 153.5 Proj. 211 72% Won · 209

Rushing yards Over 91.5 Proj. 144 72% Won · 93

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Lost · 15

Total yards Over 262.5 Proj. 335 72% Won · 278

Passing yards Over 144.5 Proj. 201 72% Lost · 117

Rushing yards Over 81.5 Proj. 134 72% Won · 161

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 73% Won · 16

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Kent State

QB Dru Deshields16/25 · 206 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 206pass yds

RB Brandon White9 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec 54rush yds

WR/TE Wayne Harris5 rec · 82 yds · 0.9 TD 82rec yds

WR/TE Brendyn Smith2 rec · 42 yds · 0.4 TD 42rec yds

Sacramento St

QB Jackson Sharman17/28 · 184 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT 184pass yds

RB Isaiah Ene9 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec 57rush yds

WR/TE Matthew Coleman5 rec · 56 yds · 0.8 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Onterrio Smith Jr.3 rec · 44 yds · 0.4 TD 44rec yds

Road form. Kent State is 0-4 on the road this season, losing by 42.8 points a game.

Home form. Sacramento St is 1-3 at home, scoring 18.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at SAC +10.5 and is now SAC +7.5, a 3-point move toward Sacramento St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.

Streak. Sacramento St has lost 6 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Kent StateSacramento State

3-5Record1-7

0-4 roadRoad / home1-3 home

W1StreakL6

6 daysRest6 days

14.9Points per game15.3

30.5Points allowed32.9

−125 Point differentialseason to date −141

185Passing yards / game197

100Rushing yards / game101

37%3rd-down conversion33%

8Takeaways5

0Sacks0

12Turnovers14

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kent State’s road games with Sacramento St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.