MoneylineBest pick
BGSU MLodds up −189
Won 82%
Bowling Green wins the game.
Confidence82%
Model64.8%
SportsbooksOdds66.7%
Edge−1.9
Kent State vs Bowling Green prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| BGSU | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 33 |
KENT STATE 35%
Pre-game win chance
65% BOWLING GREEN
BGSU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 10, 10:59 PM ET
Kent State vs Bowling Green picks
3 picks · Bowling Green by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
BGSU −5.5odds up −104
Lost 69%
Bowling Green wins by six points or more.
Confidence69%
Model50.0%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge0.0
Total
Over 45.5odds up +125
Won 74%
The two teams score 46 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model50.6%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+0.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Kent State0777721
Bowling Green770141428
Most likely final scoresKENT 21–28 BGSU 0.5%KENT 24–31 BGSU 0.4%KENT 17–31 BGSU 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Kent StateBowling Green
Offense
324▲ 409
Total yards
▲ 347333
185▲ 332
Passing yards
▲ 229194
139▼ 77
Rushing yards
▼ 118139
18▲ 20
First downs
▼ 1519
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 43
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
0= 0
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▼ 17
Penalty yards
▲ 6658
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 251.5
Proj. 324
72%
Won · 409
Passing yards
Over 128.5
Proj. 186
72%
Won · 332
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 139
72%
Lost · 77
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 18
74%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 259.5
Proj. 333
72%
Won · 347
Passing yards
Over 137.5
Proj. 194
72%
Won · 229
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 139
72%
Won · 118
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Kent State
QB
Dru Deshields15/25 · 183 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.5 INT
183pass yds
RB
Brandon White10 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
53rush yds
WR/TE
Wayne Harris5 rec · 77 yds · 1.0 TD
77rec yds
WR/TE
Brendyn Smith2 rec · 36 yds · 0.3 TD
36rec yds
Bowling Green
QB
Jay Kastantin17/26 · 191 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
191pass yds
RB
Austyn Dendy14 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Winn Sharp4 rec · 37 yds · 0.0 TD
37rec yds
WR/TE
Eli JaconDuffy3 rec · 35 yds · 0.5 TD
35rec yds
Road form. Kent State is 0-5 on the road this season, losing by 38.4 points a game.
Home form. Bowling Green is 1-3 at home, scoring 22.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at BGSU −5.5 and is now BGSU −4.5, a 1-point move toward Kent State.
Rest. Kent State comes in on 11 days’ rest, Bowling Green on 10.
Streak. Bowling Green has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Kent StateBowling Green
Kent StateBowling Green
3-6Record2-7
0-5 roadRoad / home1-3 home
L1StreakL3
11 daysRest10 days
14.3Points per game17.8
30.6Points allowed29.0
−146
Point differentialseason to date
−101
188Passing yards / game176
99Rushing yards / game110
36%3rd-down conversion40%
9Takeaways10
0Sacks0
17Turnovers13
148Passing yards / game184
80Rushing yards / game126
30%3rd-down conversion43%
3Takeaways5
0Sacks0
11Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kent State’s road games with Bowling Green’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Kent State
3-6
LLLWL
Wk 9Oct 30@ SAC
Kent State10Sacramento St31
Kent State moneyline −303Sacramento St moneyline +225
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs AKR
Akron20Kent State35
Akron moneyline +121Kent State moneyline −161
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ USF
Kent State2South Florida29
Kent State moneyline +1100South Florida moneyline −3333
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ WMU
Kent State7W Michigan38
Kent State moneyline +380W Michigan moneyline −667
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs OHIO
Ohio13Kent State10
Ohio moneyline −182Kent State moneyline +140
LFINAL
Bowling Green
2-7
WWLLL
Wk 9Oct 31@ WMU
Bowling Green10W Michigan23
Bowling Green moneyline +480W Michigan moneyline −714
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ BUFF
Bowling Green24Buffalo31
Bowling Green moneyline +123Buffalo moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs BALL
Ball State32Bowling Green31
Ball State moneyline +195Bowling Green moneyline −244
LF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10vs SAC
Sacramento St10Bowling Green38
Sacramento St moneyline +270Bowling Green moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ M-OH
Bowling Green24Miami OH20
Bowling Green moneyline +360Miami OH moneyline −556
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
KENT STATE
1
Wins
Avg. points24.0 – 21.0
Avg. total45.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
BOWLING GREEN
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Dix Stadium
Kent State24Bowling Green21
Kent State moneyline −357Bowling Green moneyline +240
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (KENT)+147+147
Moneyline (BGSU)−200−200
Spread (BGSU)−5.5up −4.5
Total45.5down 42.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Bowling Green beat Kent State 33–28 in college football Week 11, on Tuesday, November 10 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Kent State at +147 and Bowling Green at −200.
Our model predicted a final score of Kent State 21, Bowling Green 28. Its picks: Bowling Green to win (−189), won; Bowling Green −5.5 (−104), lost; over 45.5 points (+125), won. The best pick was Bowling Green to win, at 82% confidence.