MoneylineBest pick
M-OH MLodds down −286
Lost 85%
Miami OH wins the game.
Confidence85%
Model67.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge+0.8
Buffalo State vs Miami (OH) prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 4, 12:01 AM ET
Buffalo vs Miami OH picks
3 picks · Miami OH by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
M-OH −6.5odds down −127
Lost 70%
Miami OH wins by seven points or more.
Confidence70%
Model51.0%
SportsbooksOdds48.3%
Edge+2.7
Total
Over 45.5odds up −112
Won 74%
The two teams score 46 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model52.8%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+1.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Buffalo77071421
Miami OH77771428
Most likely final scoresBUFF 21–28 M-OH 0.6%BUFF 24–31 M-OH 0.5%BUFF 28–35 M-OH 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BuffaloMiami OH
Offense
322▲ 459
Total yards
▼ 350363
197▲ 358
Passing yards
▼ 154205
125▼ 101
Rushing yards
▲ 196158
18▲ 29
First downs
▲ 2319
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
= 33
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
0▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
49▲ 56
Penalty yards
▲ 10457
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 248.5
Proj. 322
72%
Won · 459
Passing yards
Over 139.5
Proj. 197
72%
Won · 358
Rushing yards
Over 72.5
Proj. 125
72%
Won · 101
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
70%
Won · 29
Total yards
Over 289.5
Proj. 363
72%
Won · 350
Passing yards
Over 147.5
Proj. 204
72%
Won · 154
Rushing yards
Over 105.5
Proj. 158
72%
Won · 196
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 23
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Buffalo
QB
Jason Wright18/32 · 197 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
197pass yds
RB
Messiah Burch17 carries · 79 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
79rush yds
WR/TE
Chance Morrow5 rec · 64 yds · 0.4 TD
64rec yds
WR/TE
Clint Walker4 rec · 46 yds · 1.5 TD
46rec yds
Miami OH
QB
Caleb Heavner11/21 · 134 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.7 INT
134pass yds
RB
Rodney Nelson12 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Maleek Huggins3 rec · 62 yds · 0.2 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
Lynel BillupsWilliams3 rec · 33 yds · 0.2 TD
33rec yds
Road form. Buffalo is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 13.3 points a game.
Home form. Miami OH is 3-1 at home, scoring 30.8 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 10 days’ rest.
Streak. Buffalo has won 3 in a row.
Streak. Miami OH has won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Buffalo StateMiami (OH)
Buffalo StateMiami (OH)
5-3Record5-3
1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W3StreakW3
10 daysRest10 days
22.6Points per game27.0
25.4Points allowed25.8
−22
Point differentialseason to date
+10
155Passing yards / game217
176Rushing yards / game141
39%3rd-down conversion36%
9Takeaways8
0Sacks0
12Turnovers7
159Passing yards / game206
118Rushing yards / game181
25%3rd-down conversion37%
4Takeaways6
0Sacks0
5Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Buffalo’s road games with Miami OH’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Buffalo
5-3
WLWWW
Wk 8Oct 24vs BGSU
Bowling Green24Buffalo31
Bowling Green moneyline +123Buffalo moneyline −164
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs MASS
UMass18Buffalo25
UMass moneyline +220Buffalo moneyline −278
WF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10@ TOL
Buffalo23Toledo8
Buffalo moneyline +571Toledo moneyline −1429
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs WMU
W Michigan20Buffalo17
W Michigan moneyline −667Buffalo moneyline +400
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs RM
Robert Morris28Buffalo31
Robert Morris moneyline +1400Buffalo moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Miami OH
5-3
WLWWW
Wk 8Oct 24@ CMU
Miami OH28C Michigan27
Miami OH moneyline −192C Michigan moneyline +143
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs AKR
Akron14Miami OH34
Akron moneyline +300Miami OH moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ MASS
Miami OH20UMass19
Miami OH moneyline −244UMass moneyline +190
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs BGSU
Bowling Green24Miami OH20
Bowling Green moneyline +360Miami OH moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs CONN
UConn21Miami OH24
UConn moneyline +110Miami OH moneyline −143
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BUFFALO
0
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 37.0
Avg. total57.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
MIAMI OH
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 13Buffalo home
Miami OH37Buffalo20
Miami OH moneyline −137Buffalo moneyline +105
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BUFF)+210up +215
Moneyline (M-OH)−270down −278
Spread (M-OH)−6.5−6.5
Total45.545.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Buffalo State beat Miami (OH) 34–31 in college football Week 10, on Tuesday, November 3 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Buffalo State at +215 and Miami (OH) at −278.
Our model predicted a final score of Buffalo 21, Miami OH 28. Its picks: Miami (OH) to win (−286), lost; Miami (OH) −6.5 (−127), lost; over 45.5 points (−112), won. The best pick was Miami (OH) to win, at 85% confidence.