MoneylineBest pick
BUFF MLodds up −122
71%
Buffalo wins the game.
Confidence71%
Model53.9%
SportsbooksOdds56.4%
Edge−2.5
Buffalo State vs Ball State prediction, picks and odds
SpreadBUFF −1.5
Total51.5 points
Kickoff in4h 11m
Updated 3:17 PM ET
Buffalo vs Ball State picks
3 picks · Buffalo by 2 · 32 pointsSpread
BALL +2.5odds down −132
69%
Ball State wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence69%
Model50.5%
SportsbooksOdds47.7%
Edge+2.8
Total
Under 50.5odds up +100
74%
The two teams score 50 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model51.9%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+1.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Buffalo010071017
Ball State0069015
Most likely final scoresBUFF 17–15 BALL 0.2%BUFF 21–19 BALL 0.2%BUFF 24–23 BALL 0.2%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BuffaloBall State
Offense
365
Total yards
348
209
Passing yards
196
156
Rushing yards
152
20
First downs
19
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
2
1
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
1
1
Field goals made
0
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
52
Penalty yards
67
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 292.5
Proj. 365
72%
Passing yards
Over 151.5
Proj. 209
72%
Rushing yards
Over 104.5
Proj. 156
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Total yards
Over 275.5
Proj. 348
72%
Passing yards
Over 138.5
Proj. 196
72%
Rushing yards
Over 100.5
Proj. 153
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Buffalo
QB
Jason Wright17/30 · 209 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
209pass yds
RB
Messiah Burch19 carries · 106 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
106rush yds
WR/TE
Chance Morrow6 rec · 82 yds · 0.4 TD
82rec yds
WR/TE
Jaylen Andrews3 rec · 28 yds · 0.0 TD
28rec yds
Ball State
QB
Keldric Luster16/27 · 182 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
182pass yds
RB
Jalen Bonds13 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 4 rec
64rush yds
WR/TE
Jamarion McDougle3 rec · 39 yds · 0.4 TD
39rec yds
WR/TE
CJ Nelson3 rec · 21 yds · 0.0 TD
21rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at BALL +2.5 and is now BALL +1.5, a 1-point move toward Ball State.
Rest. Buffalo comes in on 8 days’ rest, Ball State on 7.
Streak. Buffalo has won 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Buffalo StateBall State
Buffalo StateBall State
6-3Record3-6
W4StreakL1
8 daysRest7 days
23.9Points per game22.9
26.0Points allowed34.8
4th MACConference9th MAC
−19
Point differentialseason to date
−107
177Passing yards / game195
168Rushing yards / game144
39%3rd-down conversion36%
9Takeaways8
0Sacks0
14Turnovers9
209Passing yards / game243
114Rushing yards / game180
29%3rd-down conversion46%
4Takeaways3
0Sacks0
7Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Buffalo’s road games with Ball State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Buffalo
6-3
LWWWW
Wk 10Nov 3@ M-OH
Buffalo34Miami OH31
Buffalo moneyline +215Miami OH moneyline −278
WF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24vs BGSU
Bowling Green24Buffalo31
Bowling Green moneyline +123Buffalo moneyline −164
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs MASS
UMass18Buffalo25
UMass moneyline +220Buffalo moneyline −278
WF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10@ TOL
Buffalo23Toledo8
Buffalo moneyline +571Toledo moneyline −1429
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs WMU
W Michigan20Buffalo17
W Michigan moneyline −667Buffalo moneyline +400
LFINAL
Ball State
3-6
LLWWL
Wk 10Nov 4@ MASS
Ball State30UMass31
Ball State moneyline +118UMass moneyline −147
LF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24vs SAC
Sacramento St17Ball State34
Sacramento St moneyline +475Ball State moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ BGSU
Ball State32Bowling Green31
Ball State moneyline +195Bowling Green moneyline −244
WF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10@ NU
Ball State14Northwestern45
Ball State: no odds on recordNorthwestern: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TOL
Toledo39Ball State24
Toledo moneyline −2000Ball State moneyline +710
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameMAC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BUFF)−111−111
Moneyline (BALL)−110−110
Spread (BALL)+2.5down +1.5
Total49.5up 51.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Buffalo State visits Ball State in college football Week 11, on Wednesday, November 11 at 7:30 PM ET. Buffalo State comes in at 6-3 and Ball State at 3-6. The moneyline has Buffalo State at −111 and Ball State at −110.
Our model predicts a final score of Buffalo 17, Ball State 15. Its picks: Buffalo State to win (−122); Ball State +2.5 (−132); under 50.5 points (+100). The best pick is Buffalo State to win, at 71% confidence.