Bowling Green vs Western Michigan Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BGSU	7	3	0	0	10
WMU	7	7	3	6	23

Bowling Green vs W Michigan picks

3 picks · W Michigan by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

WMU MLodds up −714 Won 95%

W Michigan wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model86.2% SportsbooksOdds87.0% Edge−0.8

SpreadBest pick

WMU −6.5odds up −263 Won 78%

W Michigan wins by seven points or more.

Confidence78%

Model74.3% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+4.5

Total

Over 37.5odds down −270 Lost 74%

The two teams score 38 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.4% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+1.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Bowling Green070077

W Michigan714772135

Most likely final scoresBGSU 7–35 WMU 1.1%BGSU 7–31 WMU 0.7%BGSU 10–38 WMU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Bowling GreenW Michigan

Offense

292▼ 274 Total yards ▼ 336365

180▼ 149 Passing yards ▼ 146165

112▲ 125 Rushing yards ▼ 190200

17▼ 16 First downs ▼ 1520

Scoring

1= 1 Touchdowns ▼ 24

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

0= 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▲ 3 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▲ 21

0 Sacks allowed 0

55▼ 41 Penalty yards ▼ 2051

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 219.5 Proj. 292 72% Won · 274

Passing yards Over 123.5 Proj. 180 72% Won · 149

Rushing yards Over 59.5 Proj. 112 72% Won · 125

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 72% Won · 16

Total yards Over 292.5 Proj. 366 72% Won · 336

Passing yards Over 108.5 Proj. 166 72% Won · 146

Rushing yards Over 147.5 Proj. 200 72% Won · 190

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Lost · 15

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Bowling Green

QB Jay Kastantin16/26 · 177 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 177pass yds

RB Austyn Dendy14 carries · 47 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 47rush yds

WR/TE Winn Sharp3 rec · 44 yds · 0.1 TD 44rec yds

WR/TE Jeremiah Scoby2 rec · 27 yds · 0.0 TD 27rec yds

W Michigan

QB Broc Lowry14/22 · 165 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 165pass yds

RB Jalen Buckley17 carries · 107 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec 107rush yds

WR/TE Aveion Chenault4 rec · 54 yds · 0.6 TD 54rec yds

WR/TE Nathan Levicki2 rec · 26 yds · 0.3 TD 26rec yds

Road form. Bowling Green is 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 25.0 points a game.

Home form. W Michigan is 2-1 at home, scoring 31.3 points a game there.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Bowling GreenWestern Michigan

2-6Record5-3

1-3 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L2StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

18.8Points per game26.6

29.8Points allowed20.4

−88 Point differentialseason to date +50

180Passing yards / game164

108Rushing yards / game162

39%3rd-down conversion42%

8Takeaways9

0Sacks0

10Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Bowling Green’s road games with W Michigan’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.