Bowling Green vs Buffalo State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BGSU	7	7	7	3	24
BUFF	7	7	7	10	31

Bowling Green vs Buffalo picks

3 picks · Buffalo by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

BUFF MLodds up −161 Won 77%

Buffalo wins the game.

Confidence77%

Model59.9% SportsbooksOdds63.4% Edge−3.5

SpreadBest pick

BGSU +11.5odds down −345 Won 77%

Bowling Green wins, or loses by 11 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model69.8% SportsbooksOdds70.2% Edge−0.4

Total

Over 37.5−250 Won 74%

The two teams score 38 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.9% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge−0.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Bowling Green77071421

Buffalo107071724

Most likely final scoresBGSU 21–24 BUFF 0.6%BGSU 21–28 BUFF 0.6%BGSU 17–24 BUFF 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Bowling GreenBuffalo

Offense

315▲ 341 Total yards ▲ 378348

184▲ 217 Passing yards ▼ 127172

131▼ 124 Rushing yards ▲ 251176

17= 17 First downs ▼ 1920

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▲ 43

1▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 31

0▲ 1 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

60▼ 17 Penalty yards ▼ 055

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 242.5 Proj. 315 72% Won · 341

Passing yards Over 127.5 Proj. 184 72% Won · 217

Rushing yards Over 78.5 Proj. 131 72% Won · 124

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 72% Won · 17

Total yards Over 274.5 Proj. 348 72% Won · 378

Passing yards Over 114.5 Proj. 172 72% Won · 127

Rushing yards Over 123.5 Proj. 176 72% Won · 251

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Bowling Green

QB Jay Kastantin15/25 · 180 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 180pass yds

RB Austyn Dendy14 carries · 56 rush yds · 1.2 TD · 1 rec 56rush yds

WR/TE Brennan Ridley3 rec · 41 yds · 0.1 TD 41rec yds

WR/TE Jeremiah Scoby3 rec · 32 yds · 0.0 TD 32rec yds

Buffalo

QB Jason Wright14/25 · 160 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 160pass yds

RB Messiah Burch17 carries · 102 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 102rush yds

WR/TE Chance Morrow5 rec · 73 yds · 1.0 TD 73rec yds

WR/TE Clint Walker3 rec · 26 yds · 0.8 TD 26rec yds

Road form. Bowling Green is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 31.0 points a game.

Home form. Buffalo is 3-1 at home, scoring 23.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BUFF −4.5 and is now BUFF −2.5, a 2-point move toward Bowling Green.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Bowling GreenBuffalo State

2-5Record4-3

1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L1StreakW2

7 daysRest7 days

18.0Points per game21.4

29.6Points allowed25.6

−81 Point differentialseason to date −29

174Passing yards / game159

106Rushing yards / game166

36%3rd-down conversion37%

7Takeaways7

0Sacks0

8Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Bowling Green’s road games with Buffalo’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.