Ball State vs UMass Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
BALL	7	3	7	7	6	30
MASS	0	14	7	3	7	31

Ball State vs UMass picks

3 picks · UMass by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

MASS MLodds up −149 Won 70%

UMass wins the game.

Confidence70%

Model53.7% SportsbooksOdds61.7% Edge−8.0

Spread

BALL +3.5odds down −152 Won 73%

Ball State wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence73%

Model56.7% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+6.7

Total

Under 48.5odds up −112 Lost 74%

The two teams score 48 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model50.0% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge0.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Ball State77701421

UMass07710724

Most likely final scoresBALL 21–24 MASS 0.6%BALL 13–16 MASS 0.4%BALL 20–23 MASS 0.4%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Ball StateUMass

Offense

347▲ 350 Total yards ▲ 455346

183▼ 182 Passing yards ▲ 302205

164▲ 168 Rushing yards ▲ 153141

19▼ 18 First downs ▲ 2318

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns ▲ 43

1= 1 Passing touchdowns = 11

2▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

0▲ 1 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▲ 21

0 Sacks allowed 0

62▲ 95 Penalty yards ▼ 5062

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 273.5 Proj. 347 72% Won · 350

Passing yards Over 125.5 Proj. 183 72% Won · 182

Rushing yards Over 111.5 Proj. 164 72% Won · 168

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 18

Total yards Over 272.5 Proj. 346 72% Won · 455

Passing yards Over 147.5 Proj. 205 72% Won · 302

Rushing yards Over 88.5 Proj. 141 72% Won · 153

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Won · 23

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Ball State

QB Keldric Luster16/27 · 169 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 169pass yds

RB TJ Horton10 carries · 56 rush yds · 1.5 TD · 1 rec 56rush yds

WR/TE Jamarion McDougle3 rec · 35 yds · 0.3 TD 35rec yds

WR/TE CJ Nelson3 rec · 20 yds · 0.0 TD 20rec yds

UMass

QB William Watson III17/27 · 192 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT 192pass yds

RB Elijah Faulkner10 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 2 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Jabari Lewis3 rec · 51 yds · 0.0 TD 51rec yds

WR/TE Kezion DiaJohnson3 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD 33rec yds

Road form. Ball State is 1-4 on the road this season, losing by 26.4 points a game.

Home form. UMass is 2-2 at home, scoring 26.5 points a game there.

Rest. Ball State comes in on 11 days’ rest, UMass on 12.

Streak. UMass has lost 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Ball StateUMass

3-5Record4-4

1-4 roadRoad / home2-2 home

W2StreakL4

11 daysRest12 days

22.0Points per game26.5

35.3Points allowed21.1

−106 Point differentialseason to date +43

196Passing yards / game188

141Rushing yards / game147

35%3rd-down conversion32%

6Takeaways13

0Sacks0

9Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Ball State’s road games with UMass’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.