Ball State vs Bowling Green Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
BALL	3	7	7	7	8	32
BGSU	0	10	0	14	7	31

Ball State vs Bowling Green picks

3 picks · Bowling Green by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

BGSU MLodds up −263 Lost 85%

Bowling Green wins the game.

Confidence85%

Model67.8% SportsbooksOdds71.5% Edge−3.7

Spread

BGSU +1.5odds up −270 Won 80%

Bowling Green wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model69.9% SportsbooksOdds71.0% Edge−1.1

Total

Over 38.5odds down −278 Won 74%

The two teams score 39 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model69.9% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+1.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Ball State70140721

Bowling Green73771024

Most likely final scoresBALL 21–24 BGSU 0.7%BALL 21–28 BGSU 0.6%BALL 7–35 BGSU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Ball StateBowling Green

Offense

318▲ 435 Total yards ▼ 313364

178▲ 195 Passing yards ▲ 215196

140▲ 240 Rushing yards ▼ 98168

18▲ 23 First downs ▼ 1820

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns = 33

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 22

1▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0▲ 1 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

64▼ 57 Penalty yards ▲ 6056

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 244.5 Proj. 318 72% Won · 435

Passing yards Over 121.5 Proj. 178 72% Won · 195

Rushing yards Over 87.5 Proj. 140 72% Won · 240

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Won · 23

Total yards Over 290.5 Proj. 364 72% Won · 313

Passing yards Over 138.5 Proj. 196 72% Won · 215

Rushing yards Over 115.5 Proj. 168 72% Lost · 98

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 18

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Ball State

QB Keldric Luster16/26 · 159 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 159pass yds

RB TJ Horton8 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 62rush yds

WR/TE Jabari Smith Jr.4 rec · 46 yds · 0.7 TD 46rec yds

WR/TE Donovan Hamilton3 rec · 43 yds · 0.3 TD 43rec yds

Bowling Green

QB Jay Kastantin16/25 · 192 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 192pass yds

RB Austyn Dendy14 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 71rush yds

WR/TE Winn Sharp3 rec · 47 yds · 0.5 TD 47rec yds

WR/TE Brennan Ridley3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD 34rec yds

Road form. Ball State is 0-4 on the road this season, losing by 33.3 points a game.

Home form. Bowling Green is 1-2 at home, scoring 19.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BGSU −7.5 and is now BGSU −6.5, a 1-point move toward Ball State.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Ball State has lost 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Ball StateBowling Green

1-5Record2-4

0-4 roadRoad / home1-2 home

L4StreakW2

7 daysRest7 days

18.3Points per game15.8

39.0Points allowed29.2

−124 Point differentialseason to date −80

190Passing yards / game168

118Rushing yards / game107

29%3rd-down conversion36%

4Takeaways6

0Sacks0

6Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Ball State’s road games with Bowling Green’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.