Moneyline
DET MLodds down −175
Won 54%
The Lions win the game.
Confidence54%
Model52.5%
SportsbooksOdds61.1%
Edge−8.6
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 1, 4:17 PM ET
Vikings vs Lions picks
3 picks · Lions by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
MIN +8.5odds down −270
Won 78%
The Vikings win, or lose by eight points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model76.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge+7.2
Total
Under 52.5−256
Won 76%
The two teams score 52 or fewer points between them.
Confidence76%
Model68.2%
SportsbooksOdds69.1%
Edge−0.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Vikings010371020
Lions017331723
Most likely final scoresMIN 20–23 DET 0.9%MIN 17–20 DET 0.9%MIN 24–27 DET 0.9%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
VikingsLions
Offense
325▼ 266
Total yards
▲ 384325
213▼ 185
Passing yards
▼ 154210
112▼ 81
Rushing yards
▲ 230115
19▼ 15
First downs
▲ 2419
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
2▼ 0
Field goals made
▼ 23
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
3= 3
Sacks allowed
▲ 43
51▼ 40
Penalty yards
▲ 7651
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 278.5
Proj. 325
72%
Lost · 266
Passing yards
Over 171.5
Proj. 213
72%
Won · 185
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 112
72%
Lost · 81
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
72%
Lost · 15
Total yards
Over 278.5
Proj. 325
72%
Won · 384
Passing yards
Over 168.5
Proj. 210
72%
Lost · 154
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 115
72%
Won · 230
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Vikings
QB
Kyler Murray19/29 · 204 pass yds · 0.5 TD · 0.7 INT
204pass yds
RB
Aaron Jones15 carries · 68 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
68rush yds
WR/TE
Justin Jefferson6 rec · 84 yds · 0.5 TD
84rec yds
WR/TE
T.J. Hockenson6 rec · 52 yds · 0.3 TD
52rec yds
Lions
QB
Jared Goff20/32 · 210 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
210pass yds
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs22 carries · 103 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 4 rec
103rush yds
WR/TE
Amon-Ra St. Brown6 rec · 65 yds · 0.4 TD
65rec yds
WR/TE
Sam LaPorta4 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD
41rec yds
Road form. The Vikings are 3-0 on the road this season, winning by 7.7 points a game.
Home form. The Lions are 3-0 at home, scoring 27.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at DET −2.5 and is now DET −3.5, a 1-point move toward the Lions.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two NFC North rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions
Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions
6-0Record4-2
3-0 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W6StreakW2
7 daysRest7 days
20.8Points per game30.7
12.3Points allowed27.5
+51
Point differentialseason to date
+19
4.7Yards per play6.0
162Passing yards / game282
119Rushing yards / game115
37%3rd-down conversion39%
50%Red-zone touchdowns70%
11Takeaways6
21Sacks21
4Turnovers3
4.8Yards per play5.7
163Passing yards / game250
117Rushing yards / game138
30%3rd-down conversion45%
40%Red-zone touchdowns67%
7Takeaways5
11Sacks11
3Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Vikings’ road games with the Lions’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Vikings
6-0
WWWWW
Wk 7Oct 25vs IND
Colts10Vikings16
Colts moneyline +270Vikings moneyline −345
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ NO
Vikings23Saints13
Vikings moneyline −141Saints moneyline +115
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs MIA
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ TB
Vikings23Buccaneers16
Vikings moneyline −116Buccaneers moneyline −105
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ CHI
Vikings9Bears3
Vikings moneyline +175Bears moneyline −222
WFINAL
Lions
4-2
LWLWW
Wk 7Oct 25vs GB
Packers17Lions20
Packers moneyline +175Lions moneyline −208
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ ARI
Lions45Cardinals21
Lions moneyline −250Cardinals moneyline +191
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CAR
Lions26Panthers32
Lions moneyline −222Panthers moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs NYJ
Jets24Lions31
Jets moneyline +240Lions moneyline −323
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 17@ BUF
Lions31Bills41
Lions moneyline +190Bills moneyline −244
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
VIKINGS
2
Wins
Avg. points21.6 – 25.2
Avg. total46.8 pts
Over closing total3 of 5
3
LIONS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 17U.S. Bank Stadium
Lions10Vikings23
Lions moneyline −370Vikings moneyline +270
2025 · Wk 9Ford Field
Vikings27Lions24
Vikings moneyline +365Lions moneyline −500
2024 · Wk 18Ford Field
Vikings9Lions31
Vikings moneyline +132Lions moneyline −161
2024 · Wk 7U.S. Bank Stadium
Lions31Vikings29
Lions moneyline +100Vikings moneyline −125
2023 · Wk 18Ford Field
Vikings20Lions30
Vikings moneyline +175Lions moneyline −213
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MIN)+152up +154
Moneyline (DET)−182down −185
Spread (DET)−2.5down −3.5
Total45.5up 46
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings 19–15 in NFL Week 8 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM ET, at Ford Field, Detroit. The moneyline had the Vikings at +154 and the Lions at −185.
Our model predicted a final score of Vikings 20, Lions 23. Its picks: the Lions to win (−175), won; the Vikings +8.5 (−270), won; under 52.5 points (−256), won. The best pick was the Vikings +8.5, at 78% confidence.