Moneyline
DEN MLodds down −108
Won 53%
The Broncos win the game.
Confidence53%
Model52.1%
SportsbooksOdds47.0%
Edge+5.1
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 1, 7:55 PM ET
Chiefs vs Broncos picks
3 picks · Broncos by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
DEN +6.5odds down −270
Won 79%
The Broncos win, or lose by six points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model73.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+6.7
TotalBest pick
Under 47odds up −233
Lost 77%
The two teams score 46 or fewer points between them (exactly 47 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model66.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge−2.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Chiefs010701017
Broncos0767720
Most likely final scoresKC 17–20 DEN 1.2%KC 14–17 DEN 0.8%KC 20–23 DEN 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ChiefsBroncos
Offense
340▲ 399
Total yards
▼ 294310
216▲ 309
Passing yards
▲ 217205
124▼ 90
Rushing yards
▼ 77105
20▲ 22
First downs
▲ 2119
Scoring
2▲ 3
Touchdowns
▲ 32
1▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2= 2
Sacks allowed
▼ 12
53▲ 105
Penalty yards
▼ 4551
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 293.5
Proj. 340
72%
Won · 399
Passing yards
Over 174.5
Proj. 216
72%
Won · 309
Rushing yards
Over 95.5
Proj. 124
72%
Lost · 90
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
74%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 263.5
Proj. 310
72%
Won · 294
Passing yards
Over 163.5
Proj. 205
72%
Won · 217
Rushing yards
Over 76.5
Proj. 105
72%
Won · 77
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
75%
Won · 21
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Chiefs
QB
Patrick Mahomes21/35 · 216 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
216pass yds
RB
Kenneth Walker III20 carries · 103 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec
103rush yds
WR/TE
Travis Kelce4 rec · 52 yds · 0.2 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Xavier Worthy4 rec · 33 yds · 0.1 TD
33rec yds
Broncos
QB
Bo Nix20/33 · 205 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT
205pass yds
RB
J.K. Dobbins14 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
45rush yds
WR/TE
Jaylen Waddle5 rec · 50 yds · 0.1 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Evan Engram2 rec · 17 yds · 0.0 TD
17rec yds
Road form. The Chiefs are 2-1 on the road this season.
Home form. The Broncos are 3-0 at home, scoring 22.3 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two AFC West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Streak. The Broncos have won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos
Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos
5-1Record5-2
2-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home
L1StreakW3
7 daysRest7 days
23.8Points per game20.6
17.2Points allowed20.1
+40
Point differentialseason to date
+3
6.4Yards per play4.7
239Passing yards / game175
142Rushing yards / game95
39%3rd-down conversion31%
57%Red-zone touchdowns60%
10Takeaways10
8Sacks21
5Turnovers6
6.0Yards per play4.6
206Passing yards / game187
109Rushing yards / game85
35%3rd-down conversion37%
67%Red-zone touchdowns70%
5Takeaways6
0Sacks11
2Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Chiefs’ road games with the Broncos’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Chiefs
5-1
WWWWL
Wk 7Oct 25@ SEA
Chiefs3Seahawks20
Chiefs moneyline +140Seahawks moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs LAC
Chargers6Chiefs22
Chargers moneyline +330Chiefs moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ LV
Chiefs30Raiders27
Chiefs moneyline −227Raiders moneyline +185
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ MIA
Chiefs24Dolphins10
Chiefs moneyline −625Dolphins moneyline +440
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs IND
Colts30Chiefs33
Colts moneyline +215Chiefs moneyline −294
WF/OT
Broncos
5-2
WLWWW
Wk 7Oct 25@ ARI
Broncos30Cardinals16
Broncos moneyline −233Cardinals moneyline +190
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 15vs SEA
Seahawks14Broncos17
Seahawks moneyline −147Broncos moneyline +120
WF/OT
Wk 5Oct 11@ LAC
Broncos23Chargers17
Broncos moneyline −189Chargers moneyline +151
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ SF
Broncos1449ers24
Broncos moneyline +13049ers moneyline −175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LAR
Rams26Broncos30
Rams moneyline −118Broncos moneyline −106
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
CHIEFS
2
Wins
Avg. points15.8 – 20.8
Avg. total36.6 pts
Over closing total0 of 5
3
BRONCOS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2026 · Wk 1Arrowhead Stadium
Broncos10Chiefs31
Broncos moneyline +106Chiefs moneyline −128
2025 · Wk 17GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Broncos20Chiefs13
Broncos moneyline −1250Chiefs moneyline +600
2025 · Wk 11Empower Field at Mile High
Chiefs19Broncos22
Chiefs moneyline −222Broncos moneyline +170
2024 · Wk 18Empower Field at Mile High
Chiefs0Broncos38
Chiefs moneyline +375Broncos moneyline −588
2024 · Wk 10GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Broncos14Chiefs16
Broncos moneyline +285Chiefs moneyline −385
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (KC)−116−116
Moneyline (DEN)−104−104
Spread (DEN)+1.5+1.5
Total41up 41.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs 28–24 in NFL Week 8 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM ET, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver. The moneyline had the Chiefs at −116 and the Broncos at −104.
Our model predicted a final score of Chiefs 17, Broncos 20. Its picks: the Broncos to win (−108), won; the Broncos +6.5 (−270), won; under 47 points (−233), lost. The best pick was under 47 points, at 77% confidence.