Moneyline
NDSU ML−5000
Won 95%
N Dakota St wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model96.7%
SportsbooksOdds97.3%
Edge−0.6
UTEP vs North Dakota State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| NDSU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
UTEP 3%
Pre-game win chance
97% N DAKOTA ST
NDSU by 28 · 42 points
Updated Oct 31, 6:56 PM ET
UTEP vs N Dakota St picks
3 picks · N Dakota St by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
NDSU −18.5odds up −192
Won 78%
N Dakota St wins by 19 points or more.
Confidence78%
Model76.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+8.7
Total
Over 37.5−238
Won 74%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model77.4%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+10.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UTEP007007
N Dakota St0211402135
Most likely final scoresUTEP 7–35 NDSU 1.0%UTEP 7–42 NDSU 0.9%UTEP 0–38 NDSU 0.9%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UTEPN Dakota St
Offense
250▼ 238
Total yards
▼ 381406
141▼ 91
Passing yards
▲ 240207
109▲ 147
Rushing yards
▼ 141199
14▼ 9
First downs
▼ 1921
Scoring
1= 1
Touchdowns
▼ 34
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
0▲ 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
0= 0
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 3
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
55▲ 60
Penalty yards
▼ 4058
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 250
72%
Won · 238
Passing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 141
72%
Won · 91
Rushing yards
Over 56.5
Proj. 109
72%
Won · 147
First downs
Over 10.5
Proj. 14
73%
Lost · 9
Total yards
Over 333.5
Proj. 406
72%
Won · 381
Passing yards
Over 150.5
Proj. 208
72%
Won · 240
Rushing yards
Over 146.5
Proj. 199
72%
Lost · 141
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
69%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UTEP
QB
Raymond Moore III7/14 · 72 pass yds · 0.4 TD · 0.4 INT
72pass yds
RB
Tavorus Jones10 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
39rush yds
WR/TE
Kam Thomas3 rec · 45 yds · 0.1 TD
45rec yds
WR/TE
Jaden Smith4 rec · 34 yds · 0.1 TD
34rec yds
N Dakota St
QB
Nathan Hayes16/25 · 207 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
207pass yds
RB
Myles Mitchell15 carries · 74 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Jackson Williams4 rec · 77 yds · 0.3 TD
77rec yds
WR/TE
Reis Kessel3 rec · 40 yds · 0.5 TD
40rec yds
Road form. UTEP is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 46.7 points a game.
Home form. N Dakota St is 4-0 at home, scoring 32.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NDSU −26.5 and is now NDSU −24.5, a 2-point move toward UTEP.
Rest. UTEP comes in on 14 days’ rest, N Dakota St on 7.
Streak. UTEP has lost 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
UTEPNorth Dakota State
UTEPNorth Dakota State
1-6Record6-2
0-3 roadRoad / home4-0 home
L5StreakL1
14 daysRest7 days
15.1Points per game27.8
37.3Points allowed12.5
−155
Point differentialseason to date
+122
152Passing yards / game189
134Rushing yards / game160
25%3rd-down conversion40%
8Takeaways15
0Sacks0
10Turnovers8
93Passing yards / game187
113Rushing yards / game187
22%3rd-down conversion43%
4Takeaways9
0Sacks0
8Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UTEP’s road games with N Dakota St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
UTEP
1-6
LLLLL
Wk 7Oct 17vs SJSU
San Jose St24UTEP11
San Jose St moneyline −263UTEP moneyline +210
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs NEV
Nevada30UTEP13
Nevada moneyline −400UTEP moneyline +245
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ UNM
UTEP7New Mexico61
UTEP moneyline +1000New Mexico moneyline −3333
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs ORST
Oregon St33UTEP7
Oregon St moneyline −500UTEP moneyline +340
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ MICH
UTEP17Michigan52
UTEP moneyline +1500Michigan moneyline −10000
LFINAL
N Dakota St
6-2
WWLWL
Wk 8Oct 24@ UNM
N Dakota St16New Mexico21
N Dakota St moneyline +158New Mexico moneyline −213
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs NEV
Nevada17N Dakota St31
Nevada moneyline +500N Dakota St moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ UNLV
N Dakota St7UNLV13
N Dakota St moneyline −152UNLV moneyline +112
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs WYO
Wyoming0N Dakota St28
Wyoming moneyline +580N Dakota St moneyline −1250
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ SAC
N Dakota St31Sacramento St10
N Dakota St moneyline −3333Sacramento St moneyline +1250
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UTEP)+1450down +1400
Moneyline (NDSU)−5000−5000
Spread (NDSU)−26.5up −24.5
Total43.5up 44.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
North Dakota State beat UTEP 31–7 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had UTEP at +1400 and North Dakota State at −5000.
Our model predicted a final score of UTEP 7, N Dakota St 35. Its picks: North Dakota State to win (−5000), won; North Dakota State −18.5 (−192), won; over 37.5 points (−238), won. The best pick was North Dakota State −18.5, at 78% confidence.