Moneyline
UNLV MLodds down −125
Lost 56%
UNLV wins the game.
Confidence56%
Model51.9%
SportsbooksOdds49.2%
Edge+2.7
UNLV vs Air Force prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 17, 6:54 PM ET
UNLV vs Air Force picks
3 picks · UNLV by 3 · 45 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
UNLV +6.5odds up −238
Lost 79%
UNLV wins, or loses by six points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model68.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+0.3
TotalBest pick
Over 39.5odds down −278
Won 82%
The two teams score 40 or more points between them.
Confidence82%
Model75.6%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge+6.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UNLV010771024
Air Force0777721
Most likely final scoresUNLV 24–21 AF 0.6%UNLV 28–21 AF 0.6%UNLV 27–24 AF 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UNLVAir Force
Offense
367▲ 376
Total yards
▲ 448391
200▲ 246
Passing yards
▼ 18153
167▼ 130
Rushing yards
▲ 430238
19▲ 22
First downs
▲ 2522
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 53
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 52
1= 1
Field goals made
▲ 20
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 00
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▼ 30
Penalty yards
▼ 3055
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 294.5
Proj. 367
72%
Won · 376
Passing yards
Over 143.5
Proj. 201
72%
Won · 246
Rushing yards
Over 114.5
Proj. 167
72%
Won · 130
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
74%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 317.5
Proj. 391
72%
Won · 448
Passing yards
Over 96.5
Proj. 153
72%
Lost · 18
Rushing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 237
72%
Won · 430
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
69%
Won · 25
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UNLV
QB
Jackson Arnold15/24 · 199 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.2 INT
199pass yds
RB
Jai'Den Thomas14 carries · 77 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec
77rush yds
WR/TE
Tastean Reddicks3 rec · 54 yds · 0.3 TD
54rec yds
WR/TE
Kayden McGee2 rec · 54 yds · 0.4 TD
54rec yds
Air Force
QB
Liam Szarka9/16 · 122 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.9 INT
122pass yds
RB
Owen Allen9 carries · 35 rush yds · 0.3 TD
35rush yds
WR/TE
Jonah Dawson6 rec · 73 yds · 0.0 TD
73rec yds
WR/TE
Simon Kibbee3 rec · 45 yds · 0.0 TD
45rec yds
Road form. UNLV is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.7 points a game.
Home form. Air Force is 2-1 at home, scoring 26.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at AF +1.5 and is now AF −0.5, a 2-point move toward Air Force.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. UNLV has won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
UNLVAir Force
UNLVAir Force
4-2Record4-1
2-1 roadRoad / home2-1 home
W3StreakW3
7 daysRest7 days
23.0Points per game28.8
20.8Points allowed17.4
+13
Point differentialseason to date
+57
192Passing yards / game73
178Rushing yards / game326
37%3rd-down conversion54%
9Takeaways5
0Sacks0
7Turnovers4
203Passing yards / game93
183Rushing yards / game275
44%3rd-down conversion51%
4Takeaways4
0Sacks0
4Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UNLV’s road games with Air Force’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
UNLV
4-2
WLWWW
Wk 6Oct 10vs NDSU
N Dakota St7UNLV13
N Dakota St moneyline −152UNLV moneyline +112
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs CAL
California31UNLV39
California moneyline −106UNLV moneyline −125
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ AKR
UNLV38Akron10
UNLV moneyline −625Akron moneyline +390
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ UNT
UNLV6North Texas44
UNLV moneyline −149North Texas moneyline +115
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5@ HAW
UNLV21Hawai'i6
UNLV: no odds on recordHawai'i: no odds on record
WFINAL
Air Force
4-1
WLWWW
Wk 6Oct 10@ NIU
Air Force28N Illinois7
Air Force moneyline −303N Illinois moneyline +194
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs NAVY
Navy9Air Force14
Navy moneyline +118Air Force moneyline −161
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ NEV
Air Force36Nevada33
Air Force moneyline −244Nevada moneyline +172
WF/OT
Wk 2Sep 12vs NDSU
N Dakota St38Air Force32
N Dakota St moneyline −127Air Force moneyline −102
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs DUQU
Duquesne0Air Force34
Duquesne moneyline +1350Air Force moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
UNLV
1
Wins
Avg. points51.0 – 48.0
Avg. total99.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
AIR FORCE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 7Allegiant Stadium
UNLV51Air Force48
UNLV moneyline +195Air Force moneyline −270
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UNLV)−111down −118
Moneyline (AF)−111up −104
Spread (AF)+1.5down −0.5
Total48.548.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Air Force beat UNLV 41–31 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had UNLV at −118 and Air Force at −104.
Our model predicted a final score of UNLV 24, Air Force 21. Its picks: UNLV to win (−125), lost; UNLV +6.5 (−238), lost; over 39.5 points (−278), won. The best pick was over 39.5 points, at 82% confidence.