UConn vs Air Force Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CONN	0	14	6	6	26
AF	14	7	7	7	35

UConn vs Air Force picks

3 picks · UConn by 3 · 59 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

CONN MLodds down +100 Lost 52%

UConn wins the game.

Confidence52%

Model50.2% SportsbooksOdds41.6% Edge+8.6

SpreadBest pick

CONN +8.5odds down −286 Lost 78%

UConn wins, or loses by eight points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model73.5% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+5.5

Total

Over 46.5odds up −227 Won 74%

The two teams score 47 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.4% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+0.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

UConn7103111731

Air Force021702128

Most likely final scoresCONN 31–28 AF 0.5%CONN 31–24 AF 0.5%CONN 28–21 AF 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

UConnAir Force

Offense

374▼ 368 Total yards ▼ 359415

207▲ 263 Passing yards ▼ 0168

167▼ 105 Rushing yards ▲ 366247

19▼ 18 First downs ▲ 2423

Scoring

4= 4 Touchdowns ▲ 53

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 52

1▼ 0 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▼ 46 Penalty yards ▼ 3550

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 301.5 Proj. 374 72% Won · 368

Passing yards Over 150.5 Proj. 207 72% Won · 263

Rushing yards Over 114.5 Proj. 167 72% Lost · 105

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 19 74% Won · 18

Total yards Over 342.5 Proj. 415 72% Won · 359

Passing yards Over 111.5 Proj. 168 72% Lost · 0

Rushing yards Over 194.5 Proj. 247 72% Won · 366

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 71% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

UConn

QB Kalieb Osborne15/25 · 205 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 205pass yds

RB Cyncir Bowers10 carries · 78 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 78rush yds

WR/TE Jediyah Willoughby2 rec · 34 yds · 0.4 TD 34rec yds

WR/TE Ryder Treadway2 rec · 29 yds · 0.0 TD 29rec yds

Air Force

QB Howard Fisher IV5/9 · 73 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT 73pass yds

RB Evan Medders11 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.8 TD 70rush yds

WR/TE Matt Long3 rec · 42 yds · 0.5 TD 42rec yds

Road form. UConn is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 13.0 points a game.

Home form. Air Force is 3-1 at home, scoring 30.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at AF −1.5 and is now AF −2.5, a 1-point move toward Air Force.

Rest. Both teams come in on 8 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

UConnAir Force

4-3Record5-2

2-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W2StreakL1

8 daysRest8 days

35.6Points per game28.4

23.9Points allowed20.9

+82 Point differentialseason to date +53

245Passing yards / game67

203Rushing yards / game337

41%3rd-down conversion53%

7Takeaways7

0Sacks0

7Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UConn’s road games with Air Force’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.