MoneylineBest pick
SJSU MLodds up −294
Won 93%
San Jose St wins the game.
Confidence93%
Model72.4%
SportsbooksOdds73.8%
Edge−1.4
San José State vs UTEP prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 7 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 24 |
| UTEP | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
SAN JOSE ST 72%
Pre-game win chance
28% UTEP
SJSU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 18, 12:37 AM ET
San Jose St vs UTEP picks
3 picks · San Jose St by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
SJSU +1.5odds up −294
Won 82%
San Jose St wins, or loses by one point or fewer.
Confidence82%
Model74.2%
SportsbooksOdds74.5%
Edge−0.3
Total
Over 40.5odds up −208
Lost 74%
The two teams score 41 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model78.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+9.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
San Jose St014771428
UTEP77701421
Most likely final scoresSJSU 28–21 UTEP 0.6%SJSU 30–27 UTEP 0.6%SJSU 38–14 UTEP 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
San Jose StUTEP
Offense
407▲ 426
Total yards
▲ 462330
243▼ 193
Passing yards
▲ 282188
164▲ 233
Rushing yards
▲ 180142
21▼ 17
First downs
▲ 2717
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▼ 13
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▲ 10
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
56▼ 40
Penalty yards
▼ 4056
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 334.5
Proj. 407
72%
Won · 426
Passing yards
Over 186.5
Proj. 243
72%
Won · 193
Rushing yards
Over 111.5
Proj. 164
72%
Won · 233
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
72%
Lost · 17
Total yards
Over 256.5
Proj. 330
72%
Won · 462
Passing yards
Over 131.5
Proj. 188
72%
Won · 282
Rushing yards
Over 89.5
Proj. 142
72%
Won · 180
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
70%
Won · 27
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
San Jose St
QB
Luke Weaver20/31 · 243 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
243pass yds
RB
Jabari Bates22 carries · 123 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
123rush yds
WR/TE
Carson Clark6 rec · 64 yds · 0.7 TD
64rec yds
WR/TE
Jerry Mcclure4 rec · 36 yds · 0.2 TD
36rec yds
UTEP
QB
Raymond Moore III7/12 · 73 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.4 INT
73pass yds
RB
EJ Colson13 carries · 19 rush yds · 0.3 TD
19rush yds
WR/TE
Carver Cheeks4 rec · 43 yds · 0.7 TD
43rec yds
WR/TE
Jaden Smith4 rec · 39 yds · 0.2 TD
39rec yds
Road form. San Jose St is 2-1 on the road this season, losing by 2.0 points a game.
Home form. UTEP is 1-2 at home, scoring 23.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at UTEP +8.5 and is now UTEP +6.5, a 2-point move toward UTEP.
Rest. San Jose St comes in on 8 days’ rest, UTEP on 7.
Streak. UTEP has lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
San José StateUTEP
San José StateUTEP
3-3Record1-5
2-1 roadRoad / home1-2 home
L1StreakL4
8 daysRest7 days
21.0Points per game15.8
23.5Points allowed39.5
−15
Point differentialseason to date
−142
255Passing yards / game130
123Rushing yards / game127
33%3rd-down conversion23%
8Takeaways8
0Sacks0
8Turnovers10
265Passing yards / game167
106Rushing yards / game141
33%3rd-down conversion25%
4Takeaways4
0Sacks0
2Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares San Jose St’s road games with UTEP’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
San Jose St
3-3
WWLWL
Wk 6Oct 9vs WYO
Wyoming16San Jose St13
Wyoming moneyline +150San Jose St moneyline −189
LF/OT
Wk 5Oct 3@ HAW
San Jose St20Hawai'i16
San Jose St: no odds on recordHawai'i: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs FRES
Fresno St26San Jose St10
Fresno St moneyline −213San Jose St moneyline +162
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs CP
Cal Poly20San Jose St30
Cal Poly moneyline +1000San Jose St moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 4@ EMU
San Jose St27E Michigan21
San Jose St moneyline −105E Michigan moneyline −122
WFINAL
UTEP
1-5
WLLLL
Wk 6Oct 10vs NEV
Nevada30UTEP13
Nevada moneyline −400UTEP moneyline +245
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ UNM
UTEP7New Mexico61
UTEP moneyline +1000New Mexico moneyline −3333
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs ORST
Oregon St33UTEP7
Oregon St moneyline −500UTEP moneyline +340
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ MICH
UTEP17Michigan52
UTEP moneyline +1500Michigan moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs TS
Texas Southern10UTEP51
Texas Southern moneyline +1100UTEP moneyline −5000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SJSU)−294up −263
Moneyline (UTEP)+230down +210
Spread (UTEP)+8.5down +6.5
Total52.5down 46.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
San José State beat UTEP 24–11 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 9:00 PM ET. The moneyline had San José State at −263 and UTEP at +210.
Our model predicted a final score of San Jose St 28, UTEP 21. Its picks: San José State to win (−294), won; San José State +1.5 (−294), won; over 40.5 points (−208), lost. The best pick was San José State to win, at 93% confidence.