Moneyline
NEV MLodds down −244
Won 78%
Nevada wins the game.
Confidence78%
Model60.1%
SportsbooksOdds66.5%
Edge−6.4
San José State vs Nevada prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| NEV | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
SAN JOSE ST 40%
Pre-game win chance
60% NEVADA
NEV by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 24, 9:05 PM ET
San Jose St vs Nevada picks
3 picks · Nevada by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
SJSU +13.5odds down −270
Lost 77%
San Jose St wins, or loses by 13 points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model71.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+2.5
Total
Over 38.5−263
Won 74%
The two teams score 39 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model71.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+2.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
San Jose St77071421
Nevada77771428
Most likely final scoresSJSU 21–28 NEV 0.6%SJSU 21–24 NEV 0.6%SJSU 24–27 NEV 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
San Jose StNevada
Offense
363▼ 204
Total yards
▼ 324388
203▼ 139
Passing yards
▲ 210205
160▼ 65
Rushing yards
▼ 114183
19▼ 9
First downs
▼ 1920
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
▲ 43
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
2= 2
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
61▲ 74
Penalty yards
= 5454
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 289.5
Proj. 363
72%
Lost · 204
Passing yards
Over 146.5
Proj. 203
72%
Lost · 139
Rushing yards
Over 107.5
Proj. 160
72%
Lost · 65
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
69%
Lost · 9
Total yards
Over 315.5
Proj. 388
72%
Won · 324
Passing yards
Over 148.5
Proj. 205
72%
Won · 210
Rushing yards
Over 130.5
Proj. 183
72%
Lost · 114
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
San Jose St
QB
Daniel Rolovich18/30 · 203 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
203pass yds
RB
Jabari Bates23 carries · 130 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec
130rush yds
WR/TE
Carson Clark5 rec · 59 yds · 0.5 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Jerry Mcclure3 rec · 26 yds · 0.0 TD
26rec yds
Nevada
QB
AJ Bianco9/14 · 98 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.5 INT
98pass yds
RB
Dominic Kelley15 carries · 80 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec
80rush yds
WR/TE
Gary Givens III4 rec · 62 yds · 0.3 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
Damien Moun5 rec · 31 yds · 0.0 TD
31rec yds
Road form. San Jose St is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.8 points a game.
Home form. Nevada is 1-2 at home, scoring 29.7 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
San José StateNevada
San José StateNevada
4-3Record2-4
3-1 roadRoad / home1-2 home
W1StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
21.4Points per game26.0
21.7Points allowed23.5
−2
Point differentialseason to date
+15
246Passing yards / game172
139Rushing yards / game190
34%3rd-down conversion37%
8Takeaways3
0Sacks0
8Turnovers11
247Passing yards / game185
138Rushing yards / game231
36%3rd-down conversion37%
4Takeaways3
0Sacks0
2Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares San Jose St’s road games with Nevada’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
San Jose St
4-3
WLWLW
Wk 7Oct 17@ UTEP
San Jose St24UTEP11
San Jose St moneyline −263UTEP moneyline +210
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs WYO
Wyoming16San Jose St13
Wyoming moneyline +150San Jose St moneyline −189
LF/OT
Wk 5Oct 3@ HAW
San Jose St20Hawai'i16
San Jose St: no odds on recordHawai'i: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs FRES
Fresno St26San Jose St10
Fresno St moneyline −213San Jose St moneyline +162
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs CP
Cal Poly20San Jose St30
Cal Poly moneyline +1000San Jose St moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Nevada
2-4
LLLWL
Wk 7Oct 17@ NDSU
Nevada17N Dakota St31
Nevada moneyline +500N Dakota St moneyline −769
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ UTEP
Nevada30UTEP13
Nevada moneyline −400UTEP moneyline +245
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs AF
Air Force36Nevada33
Air Force moneyline −244Nevada moneyline +172
LF/OT
Wk 3Sep 19@ MTSU
Nevada20MTSU27
Nevada moneyline −200MTSU moneyline +145
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs MS
Montana St20Nevada7
Montana St: no odds on recordNevada: no odds on record
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
SAN JOSE ST
0
Wins
Avg. points10.0 – 55.0
Avg. total65.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
NEVADA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 12Nevada home
San Jose St10Nevada55
San Jose St moneyline −385Nevada moneyline +265
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SJSU)+210down +175
Moneyline (NEV)−286up −238
Spread (NEV)−5.5−5.5
Total45.545.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Nevada beat San José State 28–13 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 5:00 PM ET. The moneyline had San José State at +175 and Nevada at −238.
Our model predicted a final score of San Jose St 21, Nevada 28. Its picks: Nevada to win (−244), won; San José State +13.5 (−270), lost; over 38.5 points (−263), won. The best pick was San José State +13.5, at 77% confidence.