Moneyline
LAR MLodds up −233
Won 74%
The Rams win the game.
Confidence74%
Model62.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.6%
Edge−7.5
Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
| WAS | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
RAMS 62%
Pre-game win chance
38% COMMANDERS
LAR by 3 · 43 points
Updated Nov 8, 4:17 PM ET
Rams vs Commanders picks
3 picks · Rams by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
WAS +11.5odds down −303
Won 78%
The Commanders win, or lose by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model72.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+4.2
Total
Under 54odds up −238
Won 76%
The two teams score 53 or fewer points between them (exactly 54 is a push).
Confidence76%
Model67.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.0%
Edge−1.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Rams0103101023
Commanders010371020
Most likely final scoresLAR 23–20 WAS 0.9%LAR 27–24 WAS 0.8%LAR 20–17 WAS 0.8%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
RamsCommanders
Offense
370▼ 343
Total yards
▼ 313322
249▼ 219
Passing yards
▲ 253207
121▲ 124
Rushing yards
▼ 60115
22= 22
First downs
▼ 1618
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
▼ 12
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
2▼ 1
Sacks allowed
▲ 42
52▲ 70
Penalty yards
▼ 3953
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 323.5
Proj. 370
72%
Won · 343
Passing yards
Over 207.5
Proj. 249
72%
Won · 219
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 121
72%
Won · 124
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 22
72%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 275.5
Proj. 322
72%
Won · 313
Passing yards
Over 165.5
Proj. 207
72%
Won · 253
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 115
72%
Lost · 60
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
73%
Won · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Rams
QB
Matthew Stafford25/37 · 249 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
249pass yds
RB
Kyren Williams16 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 4 rec
71rush yds
WR/TE
Puka Nacua9 rec · 100 yds · 0.7 TD
100rec yds
WR/TE
Colby Parkinson2 rec · 18 yds · 0.2 TD
18rec yds
Commanders
QB
Jayden Daniels17/28 · 198 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.0 INT
198pass yds
RB
Rachaad White8 carries · 31 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
31rush yds
WR/TE
Chigoziem Okonkwo4 rec · 40 yds · 0.0 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
Antonio Williams3 rec · 32 yds · 0.0 TD
32rec yds
Road form. The Rams are 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 4.7 points a game.
Home form. The Commanders are 2-1-1 at home, scoring 25.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at WAS +5.5 and is now WAS +4.5, a 1-point move toward the Commanders.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Los Angeles RamsWashington Commanders
Los Angeles RamsWashington Commanders
4-4Record2-4-1
2-1 roadRoad / home2-1-1 home
W2StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
24.3Points per game22.7
21.0Points allowed26.0
+26
Point differentialseason to date
−23
5.8Yards per play5.2
259Passing yards / game201
126Rushing yards / game127
43%3rd-down conversion32%
69%Red-zone touchdowns53%
8Takeaways10
12Sacks16
12Turnovers3
5.7Yards per play5.3
287Passing yards / game193
140Rushing yards / game130
47%3rd-down conversion26%
64%Red-zone touchdowns44%
1Takeaways9
7Sacks9
6Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Rams’ road games with the Commanders’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Rams
4-4
WLLWW
Wk 8Nov 1vs LAC
Chargers9Rams24
Chargers moneyline +235Rams moneyline −303
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ LV
Rams35Raiders21
Rams moneyline −175Raiders moneyline +147
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs ARI
Cardinals18Rams16
Cardinals moneyline +550Rams moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 12vs BUF
Bills37Rams34
Bills moneyline +142Rams moneyline −175
LF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4@ PHI
Rams24Eagles20
Rams moneyline −200Eagles moneyline +162
WFINAL
Commanders
2-4-1
WLTLW
Wk 8Nov 1vs PHI
Eagles10Commanders27
Eagles moneyline +220Commanders moneyline −270
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 19@ SF
Commanders1749ers23
Commanders moneyline +31049ers moneyline −385
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs NYG
Giants27Commanders27
Giants moneyline +146Commanders moneyline −182
TF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4vs IND
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs SEA
Seahawks31Commanders33
Seahawks moneyline −400Commanders moneyline +310
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC West
NFC East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
RAMS
1
Wins
Avg. points28.0 – 20.0
Avg. total48.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
COMMANDERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 15SoFi Stadium
Commanders20Rams28
Commanders moneyline +245Rams moneyline −303
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (LAR)−227−227
Moneyline (WAS)+185+185
Spread (WAS)+5.5down +4.5
Total48.5down 48
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Los Angeles Rams beat the Washington Commanders 20–13 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET, at Northwest Stadium, Landover. The moneyline had the Rams at −227 and the Commanders at +185.
Our model predicted a final score of Rams 23, Commanders 20. Its picks: the Rams to win (−233), won; the Commanders +11.5 (−303), won; under 54 points (−238), won. The best pick was the Commanders +11.5, at 78% confidence.