Moneyline
NO MLodds down −227
Won 66%
The Saints win the game.
Confidence66%
Model57.8%
SportsbooksOdds57.0%
Edge+0.8
Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 4:47 PM ET
Browns vs Saints picks
3 picks · Saints by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
NO +3.5odds down −435
Won 78%
The Saints win, or lose by three points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model70.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+2.0
Total
Under 49.5odds up −244
Won 76%
The two teams score 49 or fewer points between them.
Confidence76%
Model69.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+1.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Browns73701017
Saints0767720
Most likely final scoresCLE 17–20 NO 0.9%CLE 20–23 NO 0.7%CLE 10–13 NO 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BrownsSaints
Offense
326▲ 355
Total yards
▲ 396318
213▲ 260
Passing yards
▲ 236207
113▼ 95
Rushing yards
▲ 160111
19▼ 15
First downs
▲ 2119
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 3
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
3▲ 5
Sacks allowed
▲ 52
53▲ 58
Penalty yards
▼ 2551
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 279.5
Proj. 326
72%
Won · 355
Passing yards
Over 171.5
Proj. 213
72%
Won · 260
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 113
72%
Won · 95
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
74%
Lost · 15
Total yards
Over 271.5
Proj. 318
72%
Won · 396
Passing yards
Over 165.5
Proj. 207
72%
Won · 236
Rushing yards
Over 82.5
Proj. 111
72%
Won · 160
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
72%
Won · 21
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Browns
QB
Deshaun Watson20/32 · 213 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
213pass yds
RB
Quinshon Judkins16 carries · 59 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec
59rush yds
WR/TE
Harold Fannin Jr.5 rec · 58 yds · 0.8 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Kevin Concepcion4 rec · 49 yds · 0.0 TD
49rec yds
Saints
QB
Tyler Shough22/34 · 207 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
207pass yds
RB
Kendre Miller11 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
32rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Olave6 rec · 76 yds · 0.2 TD
76rec yds
WR/TE
Devaughn Vele4 rec · 47 yds · 0.2 TD
47rec yds
Road form. The Browns are 2-3 on the road this season, losing by 8.6 points a game.
Home form. The Saints are 0-4 at home, scoring 18.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NO −2.5 and is now NO −4.5, a 2-point move toward the Saints.
Rest. The Browns come in on 7 days’ rest, the Saints on 14.
Tale of the tape
Cleveland BrownsNew Orleans Saints
Cleveland BrownsNew Orleans Saints
5-3Record2-5
2-3 roadRoad / home0-4 home
L1StreakL1
7 daysRest14 days
17.4Points per game23.1
21.6Points allowed27.7
−34
Point differentialseason to date
−32
5.0Yards per play4.8
204Passing yards / game230
98Rushing yards / game86
32%3rd-down conversion43%
43%Red-zone touchdowns77%
10Takeaways9
21Sacks18
11Turnovers13
5.2Yards per play4.7
221Passing yards / game213
89Rushing yards / game68
31%3rd-down conversion44%
29%Red-zone touchdowns75%
6Takeaways3
10Sacks9
8Turnovers9
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Browns’ road games with the Saints’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Browns
5-3
WLWWL
Wk 8Nov 1@ PIT
Browns6Steelers27
Browns moneyline +165Steelers moneyline −200
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ TEN
Browns27Titans24
Browns moneyline −130Titans moneyline +110
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs BAL
Ravens10Browns13
Ravens moneyline −169Browns moneyline +144
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ NYJ
Browns12Jets17
Browns moneyline +121Jets moneyline −149
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 1vs PIT
Steelers24Browns27
Steelers moneyline −154Browns moneyline +125
WFINAL
Saints
2-5
LLLWL
Wk 7Oct 25vs PIT
Steelers16Saints10
Steelers moneyline −161Saints moneyline +137
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ NYG
Saints34Giants27
Saints moneyline −111Giants moneyline −109
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs MIN
Vikings23Saints13
Vikings moneyline −141Saints moneyline +115
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 5vs ATL
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LV
Raiders35Saints27
Raiders moneyline +150Saints moneyline −200
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC North
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
BROWNS
0
Wins
Avg. points12.0 – 26.0
Avg. total38.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
2
SAINTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2024 · Wk 11Caesars Superdome
Browns14Saints35
Browns moneyline −118Saints moneyline −105
2022 · Wk 16FirstEnergy Stadium
Saints17Browns10
Saints moneyline +150Browns moneyline −179
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CLE)+160up +185
Moneyline (NO)−200down −238
Spread (NO)−2.5down −4.5
Total42.5up 43.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The New Orleans Saints beat the Cleveland Browns 23–22 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans. The moneyline had the Browns at +185 and the Saints at −238.
Our model predicted a final score of Browns 17, Saints 20. Its picks: the Saints to win (−227), won; the Saints +3.5 (−435), won; under 49.5 points (−244), won. The best pick was the Saints +3.5, at 78% confidence.