Moneyline
NE MLodds up −357
Won 81%
The Patriots win the game.
Confidence81%
Model65.8%
SportsbooksOdds77.9%
Edge−12.1
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 1, 7:55 PM ET
Patriots vs Dolphins picks
3 picks · Patriots by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
MIA +14.5odds down −303
Won 78%
The Dolphins win, or lose by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model74.9%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge+5.1
Total
Under 51.5odds down −435
Won 76%
The two teams score 51 or fewer points between them.
Confidence76%
Model69.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge−0.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Patriots0100101020
Dolphins010071017
Most likely final scoresNE 20–17 MIA 1.0%NE 24–21 MIA 0.7%NE 23–17 MIA 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
PatriotsDolphins
Offense
363▼ 313
Total yards
▼ 269305
244▼ 182
Passing yards
▲ 195189
119▲ 131
Rushing yards
▼ 74116
21▼ 16
First downs
▼ 1718
Scoring
2▲ 3
Touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Sacks allowed
▲ 52
52▼ 46
Penalty yards
▼ 5051
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 316.5
Proj. 363
72%
Lost · 313
Passing yards
Over 202.5
Proj. 244
72%
Lost · 182
Rushing yards
Over 90.5
Proj. 119
72%
Won · 131
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
74%
Lost · 16
Total yards
Over 258.5
Proj. 305
72%
Won · 269
Passing yards
Over 147.5
Proj. 189
72%
Won · 195
Rushing yards
Over 87.5
Proj. 116
72%
Lost · 74
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
69%
Won · 17
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Patriots
QB
Drake Maye21/30 · 244 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
244pass yds
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson10 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 3 rec
37rush yds
WR/TE
Hunter Henry4 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD
41rec yds
WR/TE
Demario Douglas3 rec · 36 yds · 0.3 TD
36rec yds
Dolphins
QB
Malik Willis18/29 · 189 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
189pass yds
RB
Ollie Gordon13 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
55rush yds
WR/TE
Malik Washington5 rec · 56 yds · 0.0 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Greg Dulcich4 rec · 45 yds · 0.0 TD
45rec yds
Road form. The Patriots are 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 8.8 points a game.
Home form. The Dolphins are 0-2 at home, scoring 17.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MIA +8.5 and is now MIA +6.5, a 2-point move toward the Dolphins.
Rest. The Patriots come in on 10 days’ rest, the Dolphins on 7.
Division game. Two AFC East rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins
New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins
4-3Record1-5
1-3 roadRoad / home0-2 home
L1StreakW1
10 daysRest7 days
22.9Points per game16.3
20.4Points allowed26.2
+17
Point differentialseason to date
−59
6.0Yards per play5.2
253Passing yards / game162
122Rushing yards / game132
40%3rd-down conversion41%
55%Red-zone touchdowns56%
7Takeaways5
17Sacks6
14Turnovers8
5.5Yards per play5.0
244Passing yards / game162
101Rushing yards / game168
34%3rd-down conversion52%
50%Red-zone touchdowns67%
3Takeaways2
7Sacks0
9Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Patriots’ road games with the Dolphins’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Patriots
4-3
LWWWL
Wk 7Oct 22@ CHI
Patriots24Bears30
Patriots moneyline +134Bears moneyline −159
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs NYJ
Jets19Patriots26
Jets moneyline +280Patriots moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs LV
Raiders17Patriots45
Raiders moneyline +148Patriots moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ BUF
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ JAX
Patriots6Jaguars35
Patriots moneyline +132Jaguars moneyline −156
LFINAL
Dolphins
1-5
LLLLW
Wk 7Oct 25@ NYJ
Dolphins28Jets25
Dolphins moneyline +175Jets moneyline −208
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CIN
Bengals31Dolphins24
Bengals moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +267
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ MIN
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs KC
Chiefs24Dolphins10
Chiefs moneyline −625Dolphins moneyline +440
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ SF
Dolphins1349ers35
Dolphins moneyline +56049ers moneyline −909
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
PATRIOTS
2
Wins
Avg. points22.6 – 23.4
Avg. total46.0 pts
Over closing total4 of 5
3
DOLPHINS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 18Gillette Stadium
Dolphins10Patriots38
Dolphins moneyline +650Patriots moneyline −1000
2025 · Wk 2Hard Rock Stadium
Patriots33Dolphins27
Patriots moneyline +110Dolphins moneyline −137
2024 · Wk 12Hard Rock Stadium
Patriots15Dolphins34
Patriots moneyline +290Dolphins moneyline −400
2024 · Wk 5Gillette Stadium
Dolphins15Patriots10
Dolphins moneyline −130Patriots moneyline +102
2023 · Wk 8Hard Rock Stadium
Patriots17Dolphins31
Patriots moneyline +310Dolphins moneyline −400
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NE)−370−370
Moneyline (MIA)+275+275
Spread (MIA)+8.5down +6.5
Total44.5down 41.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The New England Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins 24–19 in NFL Week 8 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM ET, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. The moneyline had the Patriots at −370 and the Dolphins at +275.
Our model predicted a final score of Patriots 20, Dolphins 17. Its picks: the Patriots to win (−357), won; the Dolphins +14.5 (−303), won; under 51.5 points (−435), won. The best pick was the Dolphins +14.5, at 78% confidence.