Moneyline
UNM MLodds up −769
Won 95%
New Mexico wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model86.8%
SportsbooksOdds87.4%
Edge−0.6
New Mexico vs San José State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| SJSU | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
NEW MEXICO 87%
Pre-game win chance
13% SAN JOSE ST
UNM by 28 · 42 points
Updated Oct 31, 6:56 PM ET
New Mexico vs San Jose St picks
3 picks · New Mexico by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
UNM −7.5odds up −227
Lost 77%
New Mexico wins by eight points or more.
Confidence77%
Model71.1%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge+4.0
Total
Over 35.5odds down −270
Won 74%
The two teams score 36 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model70.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+2.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
New Mexico7140142135
San Jose St700077
Most likely final scoresUNM 35–7 SJSU 0.9%UNM 42–14 SJSU 0.7%UNM 34–10 SJSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
New MexicoSan Jose St
Offense
393▼ 342
Total yards
▼ 238315
199▼ 111
Passing yards
▼ 190208
194▲ 231
Rushing yards
▼ 48107
21▼ 16
First downs
▼ 1516
Scoring
4▼ 3
Touchdowns
= 11
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 00
2▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 30
Ball security
1▲ 3
Turnovers
= 22
1▲ 3
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
55▼ 51
Penalty yards
▼ 4056
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 319.5
Proj. 393
72%
Won · 342
Passing yards
Over 141.5
Proj. 199
72%
Lost · 111
Rushing yards
Over 141.5
Proj. 194
72%
Won · 231
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
74%
Lost · 16
Total yards
Over 242.5
Proj. 315
72%
Lost · 238
Passing yards
Over 151.5
Proj. 208
72%
Won · 190
Rushing yards
Over 55.5
Proj. 107
72%
Lost · 48
First downs
Over 12.5
Proj. 16
73%
Won · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
New Mexico
QB
Toa Faavae12/19 · 162 pass yds · 1.3 TD · 0.8 INT
162pass yds
RB
Scottre Humphrey13 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
60rush yds
WR/TE
Cade Keith6 rec · 64 yds · 0.7 TD
64rec yds
WR/TE
Massiah Mingo2 rec · 25 yds · 0.0 TD
25rec yds
San Jose St
QB
Robert McDaniel9/16 · 72 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT
72pass yds
RB
Viliami Teu7 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
38rush yds
WR/TE
Carson Clark6 rec · 66 yds · 0.7 TD
66rec yds
WR/TE
Jerry Mcclure3 rec · 30 yds · 0.0 TD
30rec yds
Road form. New Mexico is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 9.0 points a game.
Home form. San Jose St is 1-2 at home, scoring 17.7 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 41.5 and is now 42.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. New Mexico has won 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
New MexicoSan José State
New MexicoSan José State
6-1Record4-4
2-1 roadRoad / home1-2 home
W4StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
37.0Points per game20.4
11.3Points allowed22.5
+180
Point differentialseason to date
−17
153Passing yards / game233
211Rushing yards / game130
39%3rd-down conversion31%
23Takeaways9
0Sacks0
5Turnovers8
128Passing yards / game244
188Rushing yards / game140
33%3rd-down conversion32%
8Takeaways4
0Sacks0
3Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares New Mexico’s road games with San Jose St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
New Mexico
6-1
LWWWW
Wk 8Oct 24vs NDSU
N Dakota St16New Mexico21
N Dakota St moneyline +158New Mexico moneyline −213
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ HAW
New Mexico21Hawai'i10
New Mexico moneyline −833Hawai'i moneyline +540
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs UTEP
UTEP7New Mexico61
UTEP moneyline +1000New Mexico moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ NMSU
New Mexico42New Mexico St18
New Mexico moneyline −588New Mexico St moneyline +345
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ OU
New Mexico6Oklahoma14
New Mexico moneyline +950Oklahoma moneyline −3333
LFINAL
San Jose St
4-4
LWLWL
Wk 8Oct 24@ NEV
San Jose St13Nevada28
San Jose St moneyline +175Nevada moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ UTEP
San Jose St24UTEP11
San Jose St moneyline −263UTEP moneyline +210
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs WYO
Wyoming16San Jose St13
Wyoming moneyline +150San Jose St moneyline −189
LF/OT
Wk 5Oct 3@ HAW
San Jose St20Hawai'i16
San Jose St: no odds on recordHawai'i: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs FRES
Fresno St26San Jose St10
Fresno St moneyline −213San Jose St moneyline +162
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
NEW MEXICO
0
Wins
Avg. points28.0 – 35.0
Avg. total63.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
SAN JOSE ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 6CEFCU Stadium
San Jose St35New Mexico28
San Jose St moneyline +100New Mexico moneyline −139
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UNM)−909−909
Moneyline (SJSU)+500+500
Spread (SJSU)+14.5+14.5
Total41.5up 42.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
New Mexico beat San José State 21–16 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 4:00 PM ET. The moneyline had New Mexico at −909 and San José State at +500.
Our model predicted a final score of New Mexico 35, San Jose St 7. Its picks: New Mexico to win (−769), won; New Mexico −7.5 (−227), lost; over 35.5 points (−270), won. The best pick was New Mexico −7.5, at 77% confidence.