Moneyline
UNM MLodds up −455
Won 95%
New Mexico wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model78.4%
SportsbooksOdds80.6%
Edge−2.2
New Mexico vs Nevada prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 14 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| NEV | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
NEW MEXICO 78%
Pre-game win chance
22% NEVADA
UNM by 28 · 42 points
Updated Nov 7, 12:16 AM ET
New Mexico vs Nevada picks
3 picks · New Mexico by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
UNM −3.5odds down −256
Won 80%
New Mexico wins by four points or more.
Confidence80%
Model69.8%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge+2.7
TotalBest pick
Over 33.5odds up −208
Won 82%
The two teams score 34 or more points between them.
Confidence82%
Model76.7%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge+9.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
New Mexico7140142135
Nevada070077
Most likely final scoresUNM 35–7 NEV 0.8%UNM 21–14 NEV 0.7%UNM 28–21 NEV 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
New MexicoNevada
Offense
339▲ 374
Total yards
▼ 97293
158▲ 161
Passing yards
▼ 106180
181▲ 213
Rushing yards
▼ -9113
18▲ 20
First downs
▼ 616
Scoring
4= 4
Touchdowns
▼ 01
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
= 00
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▲ 10
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 12
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
63▼ 40
Penalty yards
▼ 4053
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 266.5
Proj. 339
72%
Won · 374
Passing yards
Over 101.5
Proj. 158
72%
Won · 161
Rushing yards
Over 128.5
Proj. 181
72%
Won · 213
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 18
74%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 220.5
Proj. 293
72%
Lost · 97
Passing yards
Over 123.5
Proj. 181
72%
Lost · 106
Rushing yards
Over 60.5
Proj. 113
72%
Lost · -9
First downs
Over 12.5
Proj. 16
73%
Lost · 6
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
New Mexico
QB
Toa Faavae11/18 · 141 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
141pass yds
RB
Kiefer Sibley11 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Cade Keith4 rec · 48 yds · 1.0 TD
48rec yds
WR/TE
Massiah Mingo2 rec · 21 yds · 0.0 TD
21rec yds
Nevada
QB
AJ Bianco7/13 · 81 pass yds · 0.5 TD · 0.4 INT
81pass yds
RB
Dominic Kelley14 carries · 49 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
49rush yds
WR/TE
Gary Givens III3 rec · 44 yds · 0.2 TD
44rec yds
WR/TE
Marshaun Brown2 rec · 31 yds · 0.3 TD
31rec yds
Road form. New Mexico is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 8.0 points a game.
Home form. Nevada is 2-2 at home, scoring 29.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NEV +12.5 and is now NEV +10.5, a 2-point move toward Nevada.
Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.
Streak. New Mexico has won 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
New MexicoNevada
New MexicoNevada
7-1Record3-5
3-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home
W5StreakL1
6 daysRest6 days
35.0Points per game23.0
11.9Points allowed22.6
+185
Point differentialseason to date
+3
148Passing yards / game169
213Rushing yards / game165
38%3rd-down conversion38%
25Takeaways3
0Sacks0
8Turnovers16
124Passing yards / game191
199Rushing yards / game202
33%3rd-down conversion41%
10Takeaways3
0Sacks0
6Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares New Mexico’s road games with Nevada’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
New Mexico
7-1
WWWWW
Wk 9Oct 31@ SJSU
New Mexico21San Jose St16
New Mexico moneyline −909San Jose St moneyline +500
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs NDSU
N Dakota St16New Mexico21
N Dakota St moneyline +158New Mexico moneyline −213
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ HAW
New Mexico21Hawai'i10
New Mexico moneyline −833Hawai'i moneyline +540
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs UTEP
UTEP7New Mexico61
UTEP moneyline +1000New Mexico moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ NMSU
New Mexico42New Mexico St18
New Mexico moneyline −588New Mexico St moneyline +345
WFINAL
Nevada
3-5
LWLWL
Wk 9Oct 31@ UCLA
Nevada0UCLA27
Nevada moneyline +1250UCLA moneyline −3333
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs SJSU
San Jose St13Nevada28
San Jose St moneyline +175Nevada moneyline −238
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ NDSU
Nevada17N Dakota St31
Nevada moneyline +500N Dakota St moneyline −769
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ UTEP
Nevada30UTEP13
Nevada moneyline −400UTEP moneyline +245
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs AF
Air Force36Nevada33
Air Force moneyline −244Nevada moneyline +172
LF/OT
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
NEW MEXICO
1
Wins
Avg. points24.0 – 22.0
Avg. total46.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
NEVADA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 8University Stadium (NM)
New Mexico24Nevada22
New Mexico moneyline +410Nevada moneyline −667
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UNM)−455down −500
Moneyline (NEV)+320up +330
Spread (NEV)+12.5down +10.5
Total43.5down 38.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
New Mexico beat Nevada 31–3 in college football Week 10, on Friday, November 6 at 9:00 PM ET. The moneyline had New Mexico at −500 and Nevada at +330.
Our model predicted a final score of New Mexico 35, Nevada 7. Its picks: New Mexico to win (−455), won; New Mexico −3.5 (−256), won; over 33.5 points (−208), won. The best pick was over 33.5 points, at 82% confidence.