Nevada vs UCLA Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NEV	0	0	0	0	0
UCLA	10	7	7	3	27

Nevada vs UCLA picks

3 picks · UCLA by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

UCLA MLodds down −3333 Won 95%

UCLA wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model93.4% SportsbooksOdds94.4% Edge−1.0

Spread

UCLA −14.5odds down −263 Won 82%

UCLA wins by 15 points or more.

Confidence82%

Model73.4% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+5.1

TotalBest pick

Over 37.5odds up −217 Lost 83%

The two teams score 38 or more points between them.

Confidence83%

Model78.2% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+9.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Nevada070077

UCLA714772135

Most likely final scoresNEV 7–35 UCLA 1.0%NEV 7–42 UCLA 0.8%NEV 14–42 UCLA 0.8%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

NevadaUCLA

Offense

261▼ 176 Total yards ▼ 303417

154▼ 111 Passing yards ▼ 178201

107▼ 65 Rushing yards ▼ 125216

15▼ 10 First downs ▼ 1421

Scoring

1▼ 0 Touchdowns ▼ 34

0= 0 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

0= 0 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

2▲ 4 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▲ 4 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

58▼ 15 Penalty yards ▼ 3373

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 187.5 Proj. 261 72% Lost · 176

Passing yards Over 97.5 Proj. 154 72% Won · 111

Rushing yards Over 54.5 Proj. 107 72% Won · 65

First downs Over 11.5 Proj. 15 72% Lost · 10

Total yards Over 344.5 Proj. 417 72% Lost · 303

Passing yards Over 143.5 Proj. 201 72% Won · 178

Rushing yards Over 163.5 Proj. 216 72% Lost · 125

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 71% Lost · 14

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Nevada

QB Luke Duncan7/13 · 62 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.3 INT 62pass yds

RB Dominic Kelley15 carries · 49 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 49rush yds

WR/TE Gary Givens III3 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD 38rec yds

WR/TE Damien Moun4 rec · 23 yds · 0.0 TD 23rec yds

UCLA

QB Ty Dieffenbach14/21 · 152 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.2 INT 152pass yds

RB Wayne Knight15 carries · 89 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 89rush yds

WR/TE Semaj Morgan5 rec · 57 yds · 0.7 TD 57rec yds

WR/TE Aidan Mizell2 rec · 40 yds · 0.7 TD 40rec yds

Road form. Nevada is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 1.3 points a game.

Home form. UCLA is 4-0 at home, scoring 31.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UCLA −23.5 and is now UCLA −22.5, a 1-point move toward Nevada.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. UCLA has won 7 in a row.

Tale of the tape

NevadaUCLA

3-4Record7-0

1-2 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W1StreakW7

7 daysRest7 days

26.3Points per game34.4

22.0Points allowed15.3

+30 Point differentialseason to date +134

177Passing yards / game212

179Rushing yards / game233

40%3rd-down conversion47%

3Takeaways22

0Sacks0

12Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Nevada’s road games with UCLA’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.