MoneylineBest pick
NDSU MLodds up −769
Won 92%
N Dakota St wins the game.
Confidence92%
Model84.4%
SportsbooksOdds88.6%
Edge−4.2
Nevada vs North Dakota State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 0 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 17 |
| NDSU | 0 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 31 |
NEVADA 16%
Pre-game win chance
84% N DAKOTA ST
NDSU by 28 · 42 points
Updated Oct 17, 10:37 PM ET
Nevada vs N Dakota St picks
3 picks · N Dakota St by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
NDSU −7.5odds up −238
Won 78%
N Dakota St wins by eight points or more.
Confidence78%
Model67.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge−0.5
Total
Over 37.5odds up −200
Won 74%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model74.2%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+5.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Nevada700077
N Dakota St714772135
Most likely final scoresNEV 7–35 NDSU 0.8%NEV 7–42 NDSU 0.6%NEV 14–42 NDSU 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
NevadaN Dakota St
Offense
292▼ 286
Total yards
▼ 345384
146▲ 190
Passing yards
▼ 153190
146▼ 96
Rushing yards
▼ 192194
17▼ 15
First downs
▼ 1920
Scoring
1▲ 2
Touchdowns
▼ 34
0▲ 1
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
2= 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
54▲ 75
Penalty yards
▲ 9863
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 219.5
Proj. 292
72%
Won · 286
Passing yards
Over 88.5
Proj. 146
72%
Won · 190
Rushing yards
Over 93.5
Proj. 146
72%
Won · 96
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
70%
Won · 15
Total yards
Over 311.5
Proj. 384
72%
Won · 345
Passing yards
Over 133.5
Proj. 190
72%
Won · 153
Rushing yards
Over 141.5
Proj. 194
72%
Won · 192
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
72%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Nevada
QB
Carter Jones13/23 · 142 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 1.0 INT
142pass yds
RB
Dominic Kelley14 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
62rush yds
WR/TE
Gary Givens III3 rec · 45 yds · 0.0 TD
45rec yds
WR/TE
Damien Moun4 rec · 25 yds · 0.0 TD
25rec yds
N Dakota St
QB
Nathan Hayes14/23 · 184 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
184pass yds
RB
DJ Scott13 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Jackson Williams4 rec · 62 yds · 0.3 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
Reis Kessel2 rec · 30 yds · 0.3 TD
30rec yds
Road form. Nevada is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 5.0 points a game.
Home form. N Dakota St is 3-0 at home, scoring 33.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 46.5 and is now 43.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
NevadaNorth Dakota State
NevadaNorth Dakota State
2-3Record5-1
1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W1StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
27.8Points per game29.2
22.0Points allowed10.3
+29
Point differentialseason to date
+113
168Passing yards / game193
209Rushing yards / game172
36%3rd-down conversion42%
3Takeaways12
0Sacks0
9Turnovers6
144Passing yards / game199
176Rushing yards / game186
35%3rd-down conversion44%
0Takeaways7
0Sacks0
4Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Nevada’s road games with N Dakota St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Nevada
2-3
WLLLW
Wk 6Oct 10@ UTEP
Nevada30UTEP13
Nevada moneyline −400UTEP moneyline +245
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs AF
Air Force36Nevada33
Air Force moneyline −244Nevada moneyline +172
LF/OT
Wk 3Sep 19@ MTSU
Nevada20MTSU27
Nevada moneyline −200MTSU moneyline +145
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs MS
Montana St20Nevada7
Montana St: no odds on recordNevada: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs WKU
Western KY14Nevada49
Western KY moneyline −116Nevada moneyline −111
WFINAL
N Dakota St
5-1
WWWWL
Wk 6Oct 10@ UNLV
N Dakota St7UNLV13
N Dakota St moneyline −152UNLV moneyline +112
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs WYO
Wyoming0N Dakota St28
Wyoming moneyline +580N Dakota St moneyline −1250
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ SAC
N Dakota St31Sacramento St10
N Dakota St moneyline −3333Sacramento St moneyline +1250
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ AF
N Dakota St38Air Force32
N Dakota St moneyline −127Air Force moneyline −102
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs FORD
Fordham0N Dakota St38
Fordham moneyline +1100N Dakota St: no odds on record
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NEV)+525down +500
Moneyline (NDSU)−833up −769
Spread (NDSU)−14.5−14.5
Total46.5down 43.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
North Dakota State beat Nevada 31–17 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Nevada at +500 and North Dakota State at −769.
Our model predicted a final score of Nevada 7, N Dakota St 35. Its picks: North Dakota State to win (−769), won; North Dakota State −7.5 (−238), won; over 37.5 points (−200), won. The best pick was North Dakota State to win, at 92% confidence.