Northern Illinois vs UNLV Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NIU	14	3	7	0	24
UNLV	10	14	7	0	31

N Illinois vs UNLV picks

3 picks · UNLV by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

UNLV MLodds up −2500 Won 95%

UNLV wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model89.4% SportsbooksOdds96.1% Edge−6.7

SpreadBest pick

NIU +31.5odds down −333 Won 78%

N Illinois wins, or loses by 31 points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model73.9% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+4.7

Total

Under 60.5odds up −182 Won 74%

The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model70.7% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+2.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

N Illinois070077

UNLV7140142135

Most likely final scoresNIU 7–35 UNLV 1.0%NIU 14–42 UNLV 0.7%NIU 14–38 UNLV 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

N IllinoisUNLV

Offense

317 Total yards 419

173 Passing yards 205

144 Rushing yards 214

18 First downs 22

Scoring

1▲ 3 Touchdowns ▼ 45

0▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 13

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

58 Penalty yards 55

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 243.5 Proj. 317 72% Void

Passing yards Over 115.5 Proj. 173 72% Void

Rushing yards Over 91.5 Proj. 144 72% Void

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 18 74% Void

Total yards Over 346.5 Proj. 419 72% Void

Passing yards Over 148.5 Proj. 205 72% Void

Rushing yards Over 161.5 Proj. 214 72% Void

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 71% Void

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

N Illinois

QB Taron Dickens16/27 · 169 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.7 INT 169pass yds

RB Telly Johnson Jr.18 carries · 101 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec 101rush yds

WR/TE DeAree Rogers7 rec · 71 yds · 0.0 TD 71rec yds

WR/TE La'Don Bryant3 rec · 36 yds · 0.0 TD 36rec yds

UNLV

QB Jackson Arnold16/24 · 204 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.4 INT 204pass yds

RB Jai'Den Thomas17 carries · 104 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 3 rec 104rush yds

WR/TE Kayden McGee3 rec · 71 yds · 1.2 TD 71rec yds

WR/TE Keyan Burnett3 rec · 31 yds · 0.4 TD 31rec yds

Road form. N Illinois is 0-4 on the road this season, losing by 26.0 points a game.

Home form. UNLV is 2-1 at home, scoring 24.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UNLV −24.5 and is now UNLV −22.5, a 2-point move toward N Illinois.

Rest. N Illinois comes in on 6 days’ rest, UNLV on 13.

Streak. N Illinois has lost 7 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Northern IllinoisUNLV

0-7Record4-3

0-4 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L7StreakL1

6 daysRest13 days

15.1Points per game24.1

38.6Points allowed23.7

−164 Point differentialseason to date +3

202Passing yards / game199

100Rushing yards / game171

30%3rd-down conversion41%

7Takeaways9

0Sacks0

12Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares N Illinois’ road games with UNLV’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.