Moneyline
SJSU MLodds down −500
Won 94%
San Jose St wins the game.
Confidence94%
Model73.7%
SportsbooksOdds79.1%
Edge−5.4
Northern Illinois vs San José State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
| SJSU | 10 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 30 |
N ILLINOIS 26%
Pre-game win chance
74% SAN JOSE ST
SJSU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 7, 7:41 PM ET
N Illinois vs San Jose St picks
3 picks · San Jose St by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
NIU +17.5odds up −200
Won 78%
N Illinois wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model66.7%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge−0.5
TotalBest pick
Under 59.5odds up −238
Won 81%
The two teams score 59 or fewer points between them.
Confidence81%
Model74.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+5.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
N Illinois77701421
San Jose St714072128
Most likely final scoresNIU 21–28 SJSU 0.6%NIU 21–24 SJSU 0.6%NIU 14–21 SJSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
N IllinoisSan Jose St
Offense
340▲ 400
Total yards
▼ 316389
195▲ 259
Passing yards
▲ 231217
145▼ 141
Rushing yards
▼ 85172
18▲ 24
First downs
▼ 1420
Scoring
2▲ 3
Touchdowns
▼ 23
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
2▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
52▲ 60
Penalty yards
▼ 3450
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 266.5
Proj. 340
72%
Won · 400
Passing yards
Over 138.5
Proj. 195
72%
Won · 259
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 145
72%
Won · 141
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
73%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 316.5
Proj. 390
72%
Lost · 316
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 231
Rushing yards
Over 119.5
Proj. 172
72%
Lost · 85
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Lost · 14
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
N Illinois
QB
Taron Dickens18/28 · 191 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
191pass yds
RB
Telly Johnson Jr.19 carries · 101 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec
101rush yds
WR/TE
DeAree Rogers8 rec · 80 yds · 0.7 TD
80rec yds
WR/TE
La'Don Bryant3 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD
41rec yds
San Jose St
QB
Luke Weaver17/24 · 208 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
208pass yds
RB
Viliami Teu9 carries · 79 rush yds · 1.5 TD · 1 rec
79rush yds
WR/TE
Carson Clark6 rec · 74 yds · 0.8 TD
74rec yds
WR/TE
Jerry Mcclure3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD
34rec yds
Road form. N Illinois is 0-5 on the road this season, losing by 22.2 points a game.
Home form. San Jose St is 1-3 at home, scoring 17.3 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 50.5 and is now 52.5.
Rest. N Illinois comes in on 8 days’ rest, San Jose St on 7.
Streak. N Illinois has lost 8 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Northern IllinoisSan José State
Northern IllinoisSan José State
0-8Record4-5
0-5 roadRoad / home1-3 home
L8StreakL2
8 daysRest7 days
16.3Points per game19.9
37.6Points allowed22.3
−171
Point differentialseason to date
−22
176Passing yards / game228
88Rushing yards / game120
30%3rd-down conversion32%
7Takeaways12
0Sacks0
12Turnovers10
181Passing yards / game231
76Rushing yards / game117
28%3rd-down conversion33%
4Takeaways7
0Sacks0
4Turnovers8
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares N Illinois’ road games with San Jose St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
N Illinois
0-8
LLLLL
Wk 9Oct 30@ UNLV
N Illinois24UNLV31
N Illinois moneyline +1250UNLV moneyline −3333
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs HAW
Hawai'i56N Illinois21
Hawai'i moneyline −159N Illinois moneyline +119
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ WYO
N Illinois23Wyoming41
N Illinois moneyline +265Wyoming moneyline −345
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs AF
Air Force28N Illinois7
Air Force moneyline −303N Illinois moneyline +194
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ GAST
N Illinois14Georgia St35
N Illinois moneyline +255Georgia St moneyline −400
LFINAL
San Jose St
4-5
WLWLL
Wk 9Oct 31vs UNM
New Mexico21San Jose St16
New Mexico moneyline −909San Jose St moneyline +500
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ NEV
San Jose St13Nevada28
San Jose St moneyline +175Nevada moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ UTEP
San Jose St24UTEP11
San Jose St moneyline −263UTEP moneyline +210
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs WYO
Wyoming16San Jose St13
Wyoming moneyline +150San Jose St moneyline −189
LF/OT
Wk 5Oct 3@ HAW
San Jose St20Hawai'i16
San Jose St: no odds on recordHawai'i: no odds on record
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NIU)+355+355
Moneyline (SJSU)−556−556
Spread (SJSU)−11.5−11.5
Total50.5up 52.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
San José State beat Northern Illinois 30–19 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 4:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Northern Illinois at +355 and San José State at −556.
Our model predicted a final score of N Illinois 21, San Jose St 28. Its picks: San José State to win (−500), won; Northern Illinois +17.5 (−200), won; under 59.5 points (−238), won. The best pick was under 59.5 points, at 81% confidence.