Moneyline
UNM MLodds down −217
Won 86%
New Mexico wins the game.
Confidence86%
Model63.9%
SportsbooksOdds64.1%
Edge−0.2
North Dakota State vs New Mexico prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
| UNM | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
N DAKOTA ST 36%
Pre-game win chance
64% NEW MEXICO
UNM by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 25, 1:38 AM ET
N Dakota St vs New Mexico picks
3 picks · New Mexico by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
UNM +3.5−303
Won 77%
New Mexico wins, or loses by three points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model73.0%
SportsbooksOdds72.1%
Edge+0.9
Total
Over 35.5odds up −182
Won 74%
The two teams score 36 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model76.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+7.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
N Dakota St014071421
New Mexico770141428
Most likely final scoresNDSU 21–28 UNM 0.7%NDSU 21–24 UNM 0.5%NDSU 17–20 UNM 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
N Dakota StNew Mexico
Offense
332▼ 251
Total yards
▼ 279334
193▲ 198
Passing yards
▼ 92166
139▼ 53
Rushing yards
▲ 187168
18▼ 13
First downs
▼ 1518
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
= 33
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
62▼ 30
Penalty yards
▼ 2461
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 259.5
Proj. 332
72%
Lost · 251
Passing yards
Over 136.5
Proj. 193
72%
Won · 198
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 139
72%
Lost · 53
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
71%
Lost · 13
Total yards
Over 261.5
Proj. 334
72%
Won · 279
Passing yards
Over 108.5
Proj. 166
72%
Lost · 92
Rushing yards
Over 115.5
Proj. 168
72%
Won · 187
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
N Dakota St
QB
Nathan Hayes16/25 · 187 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.9 INT
187pass yds
RB
Myles Mitchell13 carries · 49 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
49rush yds
WR/TE
Jackson Williams4 rec · 63 yds · 0.3 TD
63rec yds
WR/TE
Mekhi Collins2 rec · 33 yds · 0.8 TD
33rec yds
New Mexico
QB
Toa Faavae8/14 · 118 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.9 INT
118pass yds
RB
Scottre Humphrey12 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
55rush yds
WR/TE
Bailen George3 rec · 49 yds · 0.7 TD
49rec yds
WR/TE
Cade Keith4 rec · 44 yds · 0.2 TD
44rec yds
Road form. N Dakota St is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 7.0 points a game.
Home form. New Mexico is 3-0 at home, scoring 56.3 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 45.5 and is now 39.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. New Mexico has won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
North Dakota StateNew Mexico
North Dakota StateNew Mexico
6-1Record5-1
2-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W1StreakW3
7 daysRest7 days
29.4Points per game39.7
11.3Points allowed10.5
+127
Point differentialseason to date
+175
187Passing yards / game163
175Rushing yards / game215
41%3rd-down conversion42%
14Takeaways21
0Sacks0
6Turnovers4
187Passing yards / game198
158Rushing yards / game241
39%3rd-down conversion50%
5Takeaways13
0Sacks0
4Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares N Dakota St’s road games with New Mexico’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
N Dakota St
6-1
WWWLW
Wk 7Oct 17vs NEV
Nevada17N Dakota St31
Nevada moneyline +500N Dakota St moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ UNLV
N Dakota St7UNLV13
N Dakota St moneyline −152UNLV moneyline +112
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs WYO
Wyoming0N Dakota St28
Wyoming moneyline +580N Dakota St moneyline −1250
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ SAC
N Dakota St31Sacramento St10
N Dakota St moneyline −3333Sacramento St moneyline +1250
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ AF
N Dakota St38Air Force32
N Dakota St moneyline −127Air Force moneyline −102
WFINAL
New Mexico
5-1
WLWWW
Wk 7Oct 17@ HAW
New Mexico21Hawai'i10
New Mexico moneyline −833Hawai'i moneyline +540
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs UTEP
UTEP7New Mexico61
UTEP moneyline +1000New Mexico moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ NMSU
New Mexico42New Mexico St18
New Mexico moneyline −588New Mexico St moneyline +345
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ OU
New Mexico6Oklahoma14
New Mexico moneyline +950Oklahoma moneyline −3333
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs MERC
Mercyhurst7New Mexico70
Mercyhurst moneyline +1600New Mexico moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameMountain West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NDSU)+159down +158
Moneyline (UNM)−217up −213
Spread (UNM)−4.5−4.5
Total45.5down 39.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
New Mexico beat North Dakota State 21–16 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 10:20 PM ET. The moneyline had North Dakota State at +158 and New Mexico at −213.
Our model predicted a final score of N Dakota St 21, New Mexico 28. Its picks: New Mexico to win (−217), won; New Mexico +3.5 (−303), won; over 35.5 points (−182), won. The best pick was New Mexico +3.5, at 77% confidence.