Moneyline
TB MLodds up −128
Won 72%
The Buccaneers win the game.
Confidence72%
Model60.9%
SportsbooksOdds55.2%
Edge+5.7
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TB | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
FALCONS 39%
Pre-game win chance
61% BUCCANEERS
TB by 3 · 51 points
Updated Nov 1, 4:02 PM ET
Falcons vs Buccaneers picks
3 picks · Buccaneers by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
TB +3.5odds up −233
Won 78%
The Buccaneers win, or lose by three points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model72.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+5.7
TotalBest pick
Over 39.5odds up −182
Lost 77%
The two teams score 40 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model67.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge−1.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Falcons010771024
Buccaneers314371727
Most likely final scoresATL 24–27 TB 0.9%ATL 20–23 TB 0.7%ATL 27–30 TB 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
FalconsBuccaneers
Offense
310▼ 224
Total yards
▼ 322333
208▼ 125
Passing yards
▼ -2203
102▼ 99
Rushing yards
▲ 324130
18▼ 8
First downs
▼ 1620
Scoring
3▼ 0
Touchdowns
▼ 13
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▲ 4
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 4
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▼ 0
Sacks allowed
▼ 13
54▼ 25
Penalty yards
▼ 4052
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 263.5
Proj. 310
72%
Lost · 224
Passing yards
Over 166.5
Proj. 208
72%
Lost · 125
Rushing yards
Over 73.5
Proj. 102
72%
Won · 99
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
69%
Lost · 8
Total yards
Over 286.5
Proj. 333
72%
Won · 322
Passing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 203
72%
Lost · -2
Rushing yards
Over 101.5
Proj. 130
72%
Won · 324
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
72%
Lost · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Falcons
QB
Michael Penix Jr.20/32 · 208 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.4 INT
208pass yds
RB
Bijan Robinson15 carries · 74 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Drake London6 rec · 96 yds · 0.2 TD
96rec yds
WR/TE
Kyle Pitts4 rec · 31 yds · 0.9 TD
31rec yds
Buccaneers
QB
Baker Mayfield22/32 · 203 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.5 INT
203pass yds
RB
Bucky Irving17 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
71rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Godwin5 rec · 48 yds · 0.0 TD
48rec yds
WR/TE
Tez Johnson2 rec · 42 yds · 0.3 TD
42rec yds
Road form. The Falcons are 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 11.7 points a game.
Home form. The Buccaneers are 0-4 at home, scoring 17.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 45.5 and is now 43.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two NFC South rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers
3-4Record2-5
2-1 roadRoad / home0-4 home
W1StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
24.4Points per game23.1
24.7Points allowed21.6
−2
Point differentialseason to date
+11
5.6Yards per play4.8
197Passing yards / game150
140Rushing yards / game146
38%3rd-down conversion39%
67%Red-zone touchdowns52%
9Takeaways12
17Sacks16
12Turnovers11
6.5Yards per play4.1
196Passing yards / game155
189Rushing yards / game109
40%3rd-down conversion31%
80%Red-zone touchdowns40%
3Takeaways4
5Sacks10
3Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Falcons’ road games with the Buccaneers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Falcons
3-4
WWLLW
Wk 7Oct 25vs SF
49ers20Falcons29
49ers moneyline −143Falcons moneyline +121
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs CHI
Bears31Falcons23
Bears moneyline −118Falcons moneyline −103
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs BAL
Ravens30Falcons23
Ravens moneyline +145Falcons moneyline −175
LF/OT
Wk 4Oct 5@ NO
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 24@ GB
Falcons35Packers14
Falcons moneyline +205Packers moneyline −263
WFINAL
Buccaneers
2-5
LLWLW
Wk 7Oct 25@ CAR
Buccaneers43Panthers13
Buccaneers moneyline +139Panthers moneyline −164
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs PIT
Steelers26Buccaneers19
Steelers moneyline −135Buccaneers moneyline +116
LF/OT
Wk 5Oct 8@ DAL
Buccaneers24Cowboys16
Buccaneers moneyline +370Cowboys moneyline −526
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs GB
Packers17Buccaneers14
Packers moneyline −156Buccaneers moneyline +130
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs MIN
Vikings23Buccaneers16
Vikings moneyline −116Buccaneers moneyline −105
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
FALCONS
3
Wins
Avg. points28.2 – 27.2
Avg. total55.4 pts
Over closing total4 of 5
2
BUCCANEERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 15Raymond James Stadium
Falcons29Buccaneers28
Falcons moneyline +220Buccaneers moneyline −286
2025 · Wk 1Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Buccaneers23Falcons20
Buccaneers moneyline −115Falcons moneyline −114
2024 · Wk 8Raymond James Stadium
Falcons31Buccaneers26
Falcons moneyline −125Buccaneers moneyline +102
2024 · Wk 5Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Buccaneers30Falcons36
Buccaneers moneyline +117Falcons moneyline −147
2023 · Wk 14Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Buccaneers29Falcons25
Buccaneers moneyline +108Falcons moneyline −128
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ATL)+111up +113
Moneyline (TB)−132down −133
Spread (TB)−1.5−1.5
Total45.5down 43.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Atlanta Falcons 16–0 in NFL Week 8 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM ET, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. The moneyline had the Falcons at +113 and the Buccaneers at −133.
Our model predicted a final score of Falcons 24, Buccaneers 27. Its picks: the Buccaneers to win (−128), won; the Buccaneers +3.5 (−233), won; over 39.5 points (−182), lost. The best pick was over 39.5 points, at 77% confidence.